Mild Start. Cold Finish (Oct 19-21)

Discussion: This weekend is fairly straight-forward. High pressure dominated today and tomorrow with dry typical fall conditions. As the high drifts into the Atlantic Ocean, it’s back-side return flow will bring milder temps for Friday-Saturday. A little bit of rain moves through early Saturday morning and then conditions clear for the rest of the weekend. The cold front that comes through early Sunday morning should set the stage for a noticeably colder Sunday-Monday. Next week looks uneventful with typical dry fall conditions. Attention is now focusing on next weekend and the start of the following week (October 27-30). A large synoptic storm signal is showing for this period. It will not likely be snow. More of a strong rain and wind storm. If the storm is allowed to get over the ocean then coastal flooding could become an issue. If the storm is further inland then flooding risk is mitigated but there could still be a lot of rain and wind. I’m focused on the upper-levels not the surface solutions you are likely already seeing or hearing rumors about. We have a lot of time on this and likely no new information will be available until early next week when serious tracking would begin. It’s just a long-range signal for now.

Friday (Oct 19) high temperatures should reach near-60 statewide. Skies should be mostly sunny after any morning fog, possibly dense, bakes off. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should range from mid-40s to mid-50s NNJ to SNJ.

Saturday (Oct 20) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 60s for most. Skies should start cloudy/foggy with rain possible in the morning. Skies should eventually clear by late-morning/early-afternoon. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should fall into the low-to-mid 40s as winds become breezy out of the NW.

Sunday (Oct 21) high temperatures should fail to escape the 50s statewide. NNJ could fail to escape the upper-40s. Skies should be partly sunny. Winds should be breezy, possibly gusty, out of the NW. Overnight lows should range from just below-freezing for NNJ elevations to near-40 in SNJ (30s for many).

An early look at next week indicates colder conditions sustaining. Highs in the 50s/lows in the 30s/40s type stuff with little-to-no rain expected. As mentioned in my discussion above, I am tracking a fairly strong storm signal for next weekend/early the following week. It’s not snow so would likely be a rain and wind storm. It is still uncertain as to whether it will bring coastal flooding problems or be more of an inland storm. Let’s see how the data evolves through this weekend. No sense worrying this far out. Everyone have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™