Mild Conditions Expected (Feb 19-23)

Discussion: The main upper-level player for this week is a strong building ridge over the E US. A slow moving Bermuda high should pump this ridge with return flow. This pattern is more typical of mid-summer and it should last until about Thursday. Another area of high pressure should then approach from the Great Lakes area. This high’s front-side N flow should clash with the departing Bermuda high’s S return flow. This should produce an area of convergence along the frontal boundary and enhance rainfall chances from Thursday into Friday (wintry mix possible overnight if low-mid levels can cool fast enough but little-to-no accumulation expected given the warmer surface). We then might see a few waves/disturbances traverse the near-stationary frontal boundary through the rest of the weekend. I’m not seeing much snow potential through the rest of February. I am seeing some long-range signals, such as Greenland blocking (-NAO) and a phase 8-to-1 MJO propagation, that would typically suggest a more favorable environment for winter storm development in March. A possible +EPO/-PNA pattern in the E Pacific/W US (W US trough) however tells me to approach cautiously. That is not a favorable pattern coming off the Pacific for an east coast snow storm. If the jet backed-up and temporarily produced a +PNA leading into a -NAO-driven E US trough however, it could plausibly produce a pattern favorable for winter storm development. Let’s take every 7-day forecasting period at a time for synoptic storm potential. In the meantime, enjoy the warmth this week.

Monday (Feb 19) high temperatures should range from mid-40s to lower-50s NNJ to SNJ. Skies should be mostly cloudy. Scattered rain showers are possible. Winds should be light out of the S. Overnight lows should fall into the 40s statewide.

Tuesday (Feb 20) high temperatures should reach into the 60s statewide. Areas away from the ocean, especially interior NJ have the best chance to break 70. After possible overnight/AM fog clears, skies should clear to at least partly sunny. The wildcard potential for this day is that fog could hang on longer for NNJ areas with snow still on the ground. Therefore, afternoon high temperatures could be inhibited in such areas. If this happens, NNJ would not see as much of a “nice spring day” as SNJ is expecting. Let’s see how much of the snow pack is eroded/washed away by Monday night showers. This would be an I-78 and N wildcard issue. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should fall into the 50s statewide.

Wednesday (Feb 21) high temperatures should range from mid-60s to mid-70s. Interior CNJ/SNJ has the best chance of reaching the mid-70s. NNJ elevations and SNJ coastal regions have the best chance at hanging in the mid-to-upper 60s. Winds should remain light out of the SW. Overnight lows should range from mid-40s to mid-50s NNJ to SNJ.

Thursday (Feb 22) high temperatures should range from mid-40s to mid-50s. Skies should be mostly cloudy. Rainfall is possible with chances increasing as the day goes on. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the NE. Overnight lows should range from near-30 to near-40 NNJ to SNJ. Precipitation should continue overnight and possibly form a wintry mix with little-to-no accumulation.

Friday (Feb 23) high temperatures should range from 40 to 50 NNJ to SNJ. Skies should remain mostly cloudy. Thursday rainfall should carry over into most of Friday with showers tapering off by mid-to-late evening. Winds should be light out of the SE. Overnight lows should range from mid-30s to mid-40s NNJ to SNJ.

An early look at the weekend indicates more mild temperatures (highs in the upper-50s/lower-60s). I’m seeing an unsettled pattern across the Mid-Atlantic US which means it could be a wet weekend. Not seeing any snow storms through the rest of February. We should however have at least one last window in early-to-mid March for wintry events to develop. As we were reminded this past weekend, you can’t call a baseball game until the end of the 9th inning (assuming no extra-innings, which in this case would be a back-loaded winter). Let’s revisit this in a few days. Have a great week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC