Mild and Unsettled Pattern

Discussion: We’ve definitely left the E US trough pattern and will now settle into mostly an E US ridge pattern with a few troughs just grazing NJ with it’s S tip. This will force most low pressure systems to track into Canada (well N of NJ) which means mostly frontal systems for NJ. Expect milder (above average) periods ahead of the cold fronts, heavy rain along the cold fronts, and sharp cooldowns (below-average) behind the cold fronts…so much so that the frontal precip could end with non-accumulating snow. Then between the fronts expect temps to smooth out to near-average. The period overall will be considered above-average due to NJ likely spending more time in the warm sector than in the transient cold behind each cold front. The first frontal system happens this Tuesday night through early Thursday morning. Warm frontal influence Tuesday night through most of Wednesday, a frontal passage Wednesday night into early Thursday AM, then a cold front pushing through prior to sunrise Thursday morning. Lighter rain ahead of the front, heavy rain along the front, and increased winds from the immediate warm sector through the cold frontal passage. S/SW winds ahead of front and W/NW winds behind. This will all allow for mixed conditions over the next several weeks ranging from beautiful-feeling days in the 50s/60s (more common) to colder days in the upper-30s/lower-40s (less common). Colder air could return by mid-March but not sure it will be Arctic enough for what we need to produce March NJ snow…more likely just slightly below average, not well below average. The 9^th inning of winter will run from March 1 to end of calendar winter, as it does every year.  

Monday (Feb 26) high temperatures are maxing into the 50s for most areas. Interior CNJ/SNJ could run at 60. Some nuisance precipitation pushed across NNJ this morning but that has exhausted out. More sun than clouds in other NJ spots but sun should return for NNJ also. Winds should remain light. Overnight low temperatures should fall into the 30-45 range from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

Tuesday (Feb 27) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 60s away from the ocean, possibly higher. Marine influence should hold immediate ECNJ/SENJ coasts in the 50s. Skies should transition to clouds with on-and-off periods of light rain starting as early as afternoon and lasting into Wednesday. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the S away from the ocean. The same areas subject to colder temps in ECNJ/SENJ will be subject to breezy/gusty winds out of the S. Overnight lows should stay above 50 statewide as rain carries into Wednesday.

Wednesday (Feb 28) high temperatures should be similar to Tuesday. Maybe mid-to-upper 50s along ECNJ/SENJ coasts but well into the 60s away from the ocean and up in the elevations. Skies should be mostly cloudy with on-and-off periods of light-to-moderate rain (morning favored over afternoon). Winds should be breezy-to-gusty out of the S/SW especially along the coast. Gusts to 40mph possible but likely 30-35mph. It looks like the Wednesday night into early Thursday morning period should feature the heaviest rain and wind associated with a passing cold front. Temps should crash into 20s/30s behind the cold front before Thursday sunrise.

Thursday (Feb 29) high temperatures should range from upper-30s to mid-40s from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts. Skies should be sunny with a colder feel after today-Wednesday. Winds should be breezy out of the W/NW which should make it feel a little colder. The sun has been winning the mid-day feels though. Overnight lows should range from 20-35 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

Friday (March 1) high temperatures should be back up near-50 for most areas away from the ocean. Immediate coasts should hold in the 40s. Skies should transition from more sun than clouds to more clouds than sun by sunset. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the SE. Overnight lows should range from lower-30s to lower-40s from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts with some light rain around overnight.

An early look at the weekend indicates highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s/40s. Saturday currently looking on the cloudier side…Sunday sunnier. Seeing lots of 50s and even 60s next week. Some longer-range signals are indicating the return of a colder pattern (relative to average) around or just after the March 8-10 period. But it doesn’t look cold enough to please the snow lover IMO. It would have to be a solid Arctic outbreak like the historical March storms of the past have seen. I’ll continue to track the last inning of the baseball game which begins March 1 and ends with calendar winter. Have a great week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC