Looking Pretty Good (May 17-19)

Discussion: High pressure is generally circulating in the Bermuda region which means one thing for NJ…warmth and humidity. A clipper-like northern disturbance will push through to our N and drag a frontal boundary through Friday night/Saturday morning. Showers and thunderstorms should fire on this line but I’m uncertain if they will make it to the coast. We’ll have to keep an eye on the radar tomorrow night. After that the Bermuda high looks to sustain which means warm humid return flow out of the Sw or S/SW for the rest of the weekend. Only isolated showers and thunderstorms from diurnal instability are possible for the rest of the weekend which means very little activity but not no activity. Saturday looks the driest and sunniest. Sunday could go the same route but again with isolated nuisance shower/t-storm cells. The pattern has flipped. Next week looks to sustain warmth with highs in the 70s everywhere and much less precipitation then as of late. From this point on we should have average precipitation from instability and frontal passages. I know this will seem like we’re still in the wet pattern but we will be without

Friday (May 17) high temperatures should reach into the 70s for many. WCNJ/SWNJ have a solid shot of breaking 80. Skies should be partly-sunny with showers and thunderstorms possible during PM hours. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the SW. Overnight lows should range from near-50 to near-60 NNJ to SNJ.

Saturday (May 18) high temperatures should easily reach into the 70s for WCNJ/SWNJ. NNJ and ENJ/SENJ coastal areas could hang near-70 maybe only the upper-60s. Skies should be partly-to-mostly sunny. Don’t forget to check out the TEDxAsburyPark event if you can! Winds should be light out of the NW. Overnight lows should range from near-50 to near-60 NNJ to SNJ.

Sunday (May 19) high temperatures should easily break 80 for many in CNJ/SNJ. NNJ might hang in the 70s. Skies should be partly-sunny with noticeable humidity. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible but shouldn’t be widespread. Winds should be light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should fall into the mid-to-upper 60s.   

An early look at next week indicates consistent temperatures into the 70s with much less rain (not no rain) than our recent wet pattern.

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC