Long Range Outlook: Through July 2016

It’s time to harness the WeatherTrends360 proprietary weather algorithms to see how the rest of July 2016 should play out. But first lets break New Jersey into proper climatological regions. We have the higher elevations of NNJ/NWNJ, the interior coastal plain (SWNJ through CNJ and into NENJ), and the coastal regions (most of SENJ). I’ll be representing each climatological region with a 28-day graph from weathertrends360 data followed by a brief discussion. Please keep in mind that these algorithms are documented with an 84% verification rate and are based on oceanic water cycles and time table series. The best takeaway from this are general trends (cool vs warm, rainy vs dry, etc). That’s what WeatherTrends360 does best with their proprietary mathematical analysis derived from over 150 years of reactive pattern data.

Higher Elevations of NNJ/NWNJ

(Sussex, Warren, Hunterdon, Morris, N. Somerset, and N. Passaic) – Known for little to no Atlantic Ocean influence, colder-snowier winters, and drier conditions in general when compared to the coast. This region is known to get hot when high pressure sits overhead during the summer and bitterly cold during Arctic outbreaks in the winter. Elevation is a major influence that separates this micro-climate from the rest of New Jersey. This region extends into NE PA (Poconos) and parts of NY State (Catskills).

Higher Elevation Discussion: The rest of July looks to feature average, maybe only slightly-above average temperatures (which are still hot as it is July). I do not see any ridiculous heat waves nor cool downs. While no major widespread rainfall systems are currently modeled, there should be no shortage of instability-driven or frontal boundary precipitation (heavy downpours at times). Unfortunately this kind of rainfall is not effective in combating long-term drought and as we all know with thunderstorm activity, not everyone gets hit. So all in all, average-to-slightly above average temperatures with slightly below-average rainfall is expected for this region closing out July.

Interior Coastal Plain from SWNJ-CNJ-NENJ

(Salem, Gloucester, Camden, W. Burlington, Mercer, W. Monmouth, Middlesex, S. Somerset, Union, Essex, Hudson, Bergen, and S. Passaic) – Known for naturally higher temperatures due to lower elevations away from the oceanic influence. This region is also known as “heat island” due to transportation (I-95 corridor), smog, abundant asphalt, concrete, and other man-made substances that naturally absorb and retain heat moreso than natural protected land. This is why excessive heat warnings and air quality alerts are more common in this region. SWNJ always tends to run a few degrees warmer than NENJ but this region is very similar otherwise in micro-climate due to the parallel nature of the Appalachian Mountain elevations to the NW. The same micro-climate can be extended into SE PA and NE MD which tends to run just a little stormier than NJ. This however is what makes up the interior coastal plain.

Interior Coastal Plain Discussion: The rest of July looks to feature average, maybe only slightly-above average temperatures (which are still hot as it is July). I do not see any ridiculous heat waves nor cool downs. Perhaps a few days make it into the 90s but nothing crazy. While no major widespread rainfall systems are currently modeled, there should be no shortage of instability-driven or frontal boundary precipitation (heavy downpours at times). Unfortunately this kind of rainfall is not effective in combating long-term drought and as we all know with thunderstorm activity, not everyone gets hit. So all in all, average-to-slightly above average temperatures with slightly below-average rainfall is expected for this region closing out July.

Coastal Regions of SENJ

(Cumberland, Cape May, Atlantic, E. Burlington, Ocean, and E. Monmouth) – Known for tremendous influence from the Atlantic Ocean. Oceanic influence keeps this zone cooler in the summer and warmer in the winter than the interior coastal plain and especially the higher elevations of NWNJ. In the summer, sea breeze fronts back into the coast and can ignite thunderstorms if enough instability is present. The cooler marine air slides under the hot air to the W and provides additional atmospheric lifting. This is both why it’s 5-15 degrees cooler at the shore than the Philly-Trenton area and why near-stationary thunderstorms can form along the coast capable of producing localized flash flooding. In the winter, the ocean is warmer than interior regions which plays a huge role in rain vs. snow—highly dependent on wind direction. When the winds chance from NE to N/NE, that’s usually when temps crash and change rain over to snow. Regardless, this micro-climate is well known, well documented and well expressed. This region extends into most of Delaware as well.

Coastal Region Discussion: The  rest of July looks to feature average, maybe only slightly-above average temperatures (which are still warm as it is July). I do not see any ridiculous heat waves nor cool downs. Perhaps a few days could break 90 while others top out around 80. While no major widespread rainfall systems are currently modeled, there should be no shortage of instability-driven or frontal boundary precipitation (heavy downpours at times). This region is doing a bit better with drought than the other regions to the N and W. All in all, average-to-slightly above average temperatures with slightly below-average rainfall is expected for this region closing out July.

Hurricane season is entering it’s second month but there is currently little activity. We might see a weak storm form near the OBX region and quickly race out to sea in the next few weeks but that’s about it. I’ll be watching close should anything form and threaten the E. US.

In English: Most of New Jersey should expect average-to-slightly above average temperatures and slightly-below average precipitation for the rest of July. No blackout-causing heatwaves and no “what is this fall?” cool downs. Very much par for the course with your average July instability and frontal boundary-driven thunderstorm activity.

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Have a great rest of your July and be safe! JC