Long Range Outlook through February 2016

Higher Elevations of NNJ/NWNJ

(Sussex, Warren, Hunterdon, Morris, N. Somerset, and N. Passaic) – Known for little to no Atlantic Ocean influence, colder-snowier winters, and drier conditions in general when compared to the coast. This region is known to get hot when high pressure sits overhead during the summer and bitterly cold during Arctic outbreaks in the winter.

Higher Elevation Discussion: The first half of February should feature declining temperatures until about the middle of the month. This is when the polar vortex will send a piece of its energy southward first into the central US which will then make its way into the E. US. The coldest part of the air mass appears rather transient (Feb 10th through 15th) as temperatures moderate from about the 15th through the 20th. One final cold shot (less intense than 10th through 15th) for the 20th through the 25th followed by more moderation through leap year. As far as precipitation goes, I see plenty of rainfall scattered with sunny days between. With that said, precipitation should be average to above-average through February with fluctuating transient periods of both cold and warmth. Plenty of snowfall opportunities left despite an overall mild winter.

Interior Coastal Plain from SWNJ-CNJ-NENJ

(Salem, Gloucester, Camden, W. Burlington, Mercer, W. Monmouth, Middlesex, S. Somerset, Union, Essex, Hudson, Bergen, and S. Passaic) – Known for naturally higher temperatures due to lower elevations away from the oceanic influence. This region is also known as “heat island” due to transportation (I-95 corridor), smog, abundant asphalt, concrete, and other man-made substances that naturally absorb and retain heat moreso than natural protected land.

Interior Coastal Plain Discussion: The first half of February should feature declining temperatures until about the middle of the month. This is when the polar vortex will send a piece of its energy southward first into the central US which will then make its way into the E. US. The coldest part of the air mass appears rather transient (Feb 10th through 15th) as temperatures moderate from about the 15th through the 20th. One final cold shot (less intense than 10th through 15th) for the 20th through the 25th (meh for snow) followed by more moderation through leap year. As far as precipitation goes, I see plenty of rainfall scattered with sunny days between. With that said, precipitation should be average through February with fluctuating transient periods of both cold and warmth. Plenty of snowfall opportunities left despite an overall mild winter.

Coastal Regions of SENJ

(Cumberland, Cape May, Atlantic, E. Burlington, Ocean, and E. Monmouth) – Known for tremendous influence from the Atlantic Ocean. Oceanic influence keeps this zone cooler in the summer and warmer in the winter than the interior coastal plain and especially the higher elevations of NWNJ. This forms a micro-climate that only local inhabitants and frequent visitors are familiar with.

Coastal Region Discussion: The first half of February should feature declining temperatures until about the middle of the month. This is when the polar vortex will send a piece of its energy southward first into the central US which will then make its way into the E. US. The coldest part of the air mass appears rather transient (Feb 10th through 15th) as temperatures moderate from about the 15th through the 20th. Then just a few colder days followed by more moderation through leap year. As far as precipitation goes, I see plenty of rainfall scattered with sunny days between. With that said, precipitation should be average through February with fluctuating transient periods of both cold and warmth. A few snowfall opportunities still exist despite an overall mild winter.

In English: Based on the data from Weathertrends 360 and the general pattern I see an overall mild month with a few transient cold shots capable of producing snowfall. NNJ looks a little rainier than SNJ (split at I-195) but overall, average to above-average precipitation is expected through the rest of February.

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™