Long Range Outlook – March 2016

It’s time to harness the WeatherTrends360 proprietary weather algorithms to see how March of 2016 should play out. But first lets break New Jersey into proper climatological regions. We have the higher elevations of NNJ/NWNJ, the interior coastal plain (SWNJ through CNJ and into NENJ), and the coastal regions (most of SENJ). I’ll be representing each climatological region with a 28-day graph from weathertrends360 data followed by a brief discussion. Please keep in mind that these algorithms are documented with an 84% verification rate and are based on oceanic water cycles and time table series. Do not focus on specific detailed daily forecasts (sun vs clouds, etc). Focus on general trends (cool vs warm, rainy vs dry, etc). That’s what WeatherTrends360 does best.

Higher Elevations of NNJ/NWNJ

(Sussex, Warren, Hunterdon, Morris, N. Somerset, and N. Passaic) – Known for little to no Atlantic Ocean influence, colder-snowier winters, and drier conditions in general when compared to the coast. This region is known to get hot when high pressure sits overhead during the summer and bitterly cold during Arctic outbreaks in the winter.

Higher Elevation Discussion: The first week of March should be the coldest week of March. Temperatures should then moderate to more of a spring feel from the 9th-forward. Even the NNJ elevations are capable of breaking 60 a few times. A few days where highs only reach the 40s are possible in the second half of March but most days look to at least reach into the 50s. From the 9th-forward, overnight low temperatures should have trouble dipping below ~30. Along with the warmer spring temperatures should come spring showers every few days. We should still see lots of sunshine however heading into April.

Interior Coastal Plain from SWNJ-CNJ-NENJ

(Salem, Gloucester, Camden, W. Burlington, Mercer, W. Monmouth, Middlesex, S. Somerset, Union, Essex, Hudson, Bergen, and S. Passaic) – Known for naturally higher temperatures due to lower elevations away from the oceanic influence. This region is also known as “heat island” due to transportation (I-95 corridor), smog, abundant asphalt, concrete, and other man-made substances that naturally absorb and retain heat moreso than natural protected land.

Interior Coastal Plain Discussion: The first week of March should be the coldest week of March. Temperatures should then moderate to more of a spring feel from the 9th-forward. Breaking 70 for this region is not out of the question. I see lots of 50s and 60s regardless. From the 9th-forward, overnight low temperatures should have trouble dipping below freezing however a decent amount of frosts are still likely. Along with the warmer spring temperatures should come spring showers every few days. We should still see lots of sunshine however heading into April.

Coastal Regions of SENJ

(Cumberland, Cape May, Atlantic, E. Burlington, Ocean, and E. Monmouth) – Known for tremendous influence from the Atlantic Ocean. Oceanic influence keeps this zone cooler in the summer and warmer in the winter than the interior coastal plain and especially the higher elevations of NWNJ. This forms a micro-climate that only local inhabitants and frequent visitors are familiar with.

Coastal Region Discussion: The first week of March should be the coldest week of March. Temperatures should then moderate to more of a spring feel from the 9th-forward. Breaking 70 for this region is not out of the question, especially next week. I see lots of 50s and 60s regardless. From the 9th-forward, overnight low temperatures should have trouble dipping below freezing will still a few frosts. Along with the warmer spring temperatures should come spring showers every few days. We should still see lots of sunshine however heading into April.

In English: Winter is likely over from March 9-forward. Aside from the possible nuisance snow accumulations this Friday, I’ve already checked out. I’m ready for spring so bring on the warmth. There should be lots of highs in the 50s and 60s through March with 70+ possible for lower elevations next week. Sunshine should be abundant but with warmer spring temperatures comes spring showers every few days or so. No major storm systems are currently on the horizon however nor’easters can still happen—undetectable until about 5-7 days beforehand on long-range model guidance. Should such emerge, you know I’ll be on it. Have a great March and be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC