Long Range Outlook: Closing Out Astronomical Summer

Higher Elevations of NNJ/NWNJ

(Sussex, Warren, Hunterdon, Morris, N. Somerset, and N. Passaic) – Known for little to no Atlantic Ocean influence, colder-snowier winters, and drier conditions in general when compared to the coast. This region is known to get hot when high pressure sits overhead during the summer and bitterly cold during Arctic outbreaks in the winter.

Discussion: The first third of September looks to remain warm, aside from a potential BDCF (Back Door Cold Front) this weekend due to strong E/SE onshore flow. Expect more 90s before this weekend and mid-80s after. Interior regions along urban areas (I-95 corridor from Philly through Trenton and into NYC) should reach the highest temperatures during this period with typical summer shower and thunderstorm activity. The remaining 2/3 of September appears to feature temperatures more seasonably. Once we do make that transition from summer’s last grip to sustained early fall feel, widespread precipitation chances will increase and help combat the current developing drought. By the time astronomical summer ends, this region should be experiencing highs just breaking 70 and overnight lows flirting with the 40s, especially for NNJ elevations. Such conditions appear to close out the rest of September as well.

Interior Coastal Plain from SWNJ-CNJ-NENJ

(Salem, Gloucester, Camden, W. Burlington, Mercer, W. Monmouth, Middlesex, Union, Essex, Hudson, Bergen, and S. Passaic) – Known for naturally higher temperatures due to lower elevations away from the oceanic influence. This region is also known as “heat island” due to transportation (I-95 corridor), smog, abundant asphalt, concrete, and other man-made substances that naturally absorb and retain heat moreso than natural protected land.

Discussion: The first third of September looks to remain warm, aside from a potential BDCF (Back Door Cold Front) this weekend due to strong E/SE onshore flow. Expect more 90s before this weekend and mid-80s after. Interior regions along urban areas (I-95 corridor from Philly through Trenton and into NYC) should reach the highest temperatures during this period with typical summer shower and thunderstorm activity. The remaining 2/3 of September appears to feature temperatures more seasonably average. Once we do make that transition from summer’s last grip to sustained early fall feel, widespread precipitation chances will increase and help combat the current developing drought. By the time astronomical summer ends, this region should be experiencing highs in the mid-70s and overnight lows down well into the 50s. Such conditions appear to close out the rest of September.

Coastal Regions of SENJ

(Cumberland, Cape May, Atlantic, E. Burlington, Ocean, and E. Monmouth) – Known for tremendous influence from the Atlantic Ocean. Oceanic influence keeps this zone cooler in the summer and warmer in the winter than the interior coastal plain and especially the higher elevations of NWNJ. This forms a micro-climate that only local inhabitants and frequent visitors are familiar with.

Discussion: The first third of September looks to remain warm, aside from a potential BDCF (Back Door Cold Front) this weekend due to strong E/SE onshore flow. Expect more 90s before this weekend and mid-80s after. Interior regions along urban areas (I-95 corridor from Philly through Trenton and into NYC) should reach the highest temperatures during this period with typical summer shower and thunderstorm activity. The remaining 2/3 of September appears to feature temperatures more seasonably average. Once we do make that transition from summer’s last grip to sustained early fall feel, widespread precipitation chances will increase and help combat the current developing drought. By the time astronomical summer ends, this region should be experiencing highs in the mid-70s and overnight lows down well into the 50s. Such conditions appear to close out the rest of September.

In English: We’re hot and humid during the next few days, cooler for the weekend followed by summer’s last gasp next week. Lack of rainfall should continue during this period as the drought continues to develop. After that, general conditions will feel like fall through the rest of September and we should see a correlating increase in widespread rainfall.

Tropical activity is the unforeseen caveat which cannot be detected until about 7-10 days from formation using global model guidance. We’re very close to peak hurricane season so its time to start paying attention to anything that comes off the west coast of Africa as well as closer developments in the Gulf of Mexico and Bahamas/Caribbean. Should that happen, I’ll be on it immediately. Otherwise, a great September is predicted!

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Image Credit: Disney’s Pirates of the Caribbean obtained from Google images using the “available for reuse” clause. Enjoy the month of September and please be safe! JC

Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC