Discussion: It appears that a graze of at least flurries and snow showers are possible for SENJ late tonight into tomorrow morning. It’s not a slam dunk but some last-minute guidance has sparked some interest for at least a few SENJ counties.
This was originally the identified Jan 22 storm signal that ultimately was suppressed by the current ridiculous cold air mass (Arctic air from Siberia). There is zero chance it comes back as a NJ snowstorm, or even SNJ snostorm. But there’s a non-zero chance it produces light snow for at least Cape May County, possibly SE Cumberland, SE half of Atlantic, and extreme S Ocean.
Below are two trend animations of the RGEM and Euro models. These animations show how the total snow accumulation outputs have trended NW off the ocean into SENJ. These are just model outputs, not gospel verbatim of what will happen:
Other models (GFS, NAM, etc.) keep the snow just offshore. All possible outcomes. The only reason I am mentioning it today is because there’s a chance it could happen. I am not forecasting with 100% certainty that it will happen. But should it happen on the snowier side of expectations, a little more time to travel should be allowed in those SENJ locations tomorrow morning. We should have a good idea by evening hours today on radar…a few hours before the period of interest (9pm to 3am).
I’d give it a 50% chance for at least Cape May to see flurries tonight (Tuesday) into early tomorrow AM hours (Wednesday). I’d give it a 25% chance of a slightly higher impact “coating to an inch” situation for the extreme SNJ/SENJ areas I described above as well as the Sussex County (Delaware) area. Again, by no means a big deal…but it doesn’t take much to slick up the roads with current temperature situation. One thing is for sure, anything that does fall whether just flurries or light accumulating snow showers, will stick.
In English: Light snow is possible for extreme SNJ/SENJ overnight tonight between 9pm and 3am. Anything from just flurries producing a dusting in some spots (50% chance) to snow showers producing snow accumulations likely less than an inch (25% chance). Cape May would be most favored for this. If the light snow can extend further into SENJ, it would likely still remain confined to SE Cumberland, SE half of Atlantic County, and maybe extreme S Ocean County. Just something small I’ll be watching tonight. Hope everyone is staying warm in this stupid cold. Have a great rest of your Tuesday and please be safe! JC
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Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC