Discussion: There have been no changes in my thoughts on a big storm coming back for this weekend. We beat the physics to death over the last few days as to why it won’t happen. In short, the N stream energy that was supposed to dive into the trough (near W Texast) and turn it neutral/slightly negative is instead going to come up over the Great Lakes towards NJ from the NW…instead of a singular system. Therefore we have to storm lows, one that is bringing snow to S US that will eject into the Atlantic to the S of NJ and one that will pass over the Great Lakes and track just to the N of NJ. So NJ will see the influence of two weaker lows rather than a singular strong low.
How much these two lows interact with each other will determine the range of snow extent across NJ but it doesn’t look like much. A widespread coating to an inch seems like a reasonable forecast from this range. The only way anyone would crack an inch or more would be if 1) the S stream low tracks a little further N. This would likely only bring extreme SNJ/SENJ into snowfall potential greater than an inch…pretty much the same areas that saw 5-8” on Monday. Or 2) The N stream low is a little more potent and takes advantage of colder snow ratios across NNJ/CNJ. Otherwise, a coating to an inch is again, a reasonable expectation for the entire state of NJ.
Today was the coldest and windiest day of this cold period. NJ should hit mid-30s with relaxed winds tomorrow which should feel like spring (relatively) compared to last few days. Temps then fall Friday evening back below freezing for all areas before snow arrives. Snow should knock on SWNJ’s door around midnight Friday night or just after (early Sat AM), spread into the rest of NJ by 6AM, and then end from W to E for all areas between 8-10am Saturday morning.
Saturday afternoon should hit the mid-30s again and likely more of the same for Sunday. Monday could actually hit 40 across SNJ before we start reloading a colder pattern later next week. Otherwise, the weekend looks mostly cold, dry and somewhat tranquil outside of some N/NW winds behind the low.
In English: Winds relax and temps moderate a little Friday (just above freezing) below dipping back below freezing after sunset. Clouds should move in and snow should start around midnight Friday night, push into all of NJ by 6AM Saturday morning, and end by 10AM Saturday morning. A coating to an inch of snow is the most reasonable forecast for now. Extreme NNJ and/or extreme SNJ/SENJ could do slightly better as a wildcard if either of the lows verify more aggressive. Even then, not a big deal. Have a great rest of your Thursday evening and please be safe! JC
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Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC