Light Snow and Gusty Winds Detected

Discussion: A clipper system is called a clipper, mainly an Alberta Clipper because the low originates in the Alberta province of Canada and tracks into/towards the Mid-Atlantic US on the norther colder stream. Typically, a clipper is moisture-starved because there is very cold air involved. However, the light accumulations that can fall can 1) Temporarily reduce visibility as much as a blizzard and 2) stack up a quick/slick coating to an inch or so on roads given the colder surface temperatures likely involved. The snowfall is typically high-ratio snowfall and has a different look and feel to it. Rather than the pelty snow that happens when air temperatures are near 32 degrees, clipper snow is usually finer and more powdery. With that said…

A clipper system (center of the low) will track from Canada into the NE US between now and Friday. The clipper is expected to pick up some additional moisture from the Great Lakes and snow on New Jersey between about 9PM Wednesday and 8AM Thursday morning. That’s the total window where snow is possible. The actual extent of snowfall could be shorter but within that period. In either case, this could present surprise hardship for Thursday morning school/work commutes, especially for NNJ, maybe some parts of CNJ.

NJ areas N of I-78 have the best chance to see accumulations of a coating to an inch or two. I suppose some higher elevations could see a few inches from this but a coating to an inch is a safe expectation N of I-78. I could see dustings as far S as I-195 but otherwise most of CNJ and SNJ will be slightly too warm at the surface for stickage. Most of SNJ, especially the coast will reach 40F on Wednesday (tomorrow) and will stay just above freezing through Thursday afternoon. Areas of NJ N of I-78, however, will struggle to rise above freezing, even during peak afternoon hours on Wednesday and then will stay at or below freezing during snowfall. I will say, however, that even though the surface temperatures will be above freezing for CNJ/SNJ during snowfall, the precipitation type could still be snowfall instead of rain given how cold it will be just aloft. So stickage for NNJ and conversational snow for SNJ is a safe bet.

Another feature worth discussing are winds. Winds could be breezy-to-gusty our of the SW at times leading into and during the snowfall. Once the clipper clears through, NJ should then see breezy-to-gusty winds out of the W/NW which should dominate most of Thursday into Friday. I’m thinking sustained winds of 15-20mph with gusts to the 40-45mph range. The backside W/NW winds should be slightly higher than the front-side SW winds. The winds should relax heading into a colder weekend with more light snow possible. Let’s get through this clipper first and see how the wake of such aligns the low-steering boundary.

In English: Another cold night tonight then temps rise above freezing for SNJ and most of CNJ on Wednesday. NNJ stays near freezing on Wednesday before light snow moves in anytime after 9pm Wednesday night. Snow should end by 8am Thursday morning. A coating to an inch of snow accumulation is a reasonable expectation for NJ areas N of I-78. Elevations could stack a few more depending on snowfall intensity. I could see snow dustings down to I-195 but likely no stickage S of I-195 (most of CNJ and all of SNJ). This could prevent travel issues in NNJ Thursday morning so allow extra time if you can. We then turn windy and cold Thursday into Friday followed by a calmer but cold Saturday into Sunday. Then a short warmup Monday-Wednesday of next week before the colder pattern reloads. I’ll check back tomorrow to make sure there are no surprises. Otherwise have a great rest of your Tuesday and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC