Discussion: The upper jet is somewhat inconclusive IMO but 500mb height anomalies tell the story better. For the next 10-14 days, we’re going to see lower heights over the E US in a series of colder/unsettled troughs. This should keep the surface below average in temperature and rainier. This pattern will be supported by W US ridging upstream. Before getting into the rain, let’s talk about temperature. Average high temperatures for this time of year are upper-60s. We’re instead going to see lower-60s. Average lows are mid-to-upper 40s. We’re instead going to see upper-30s/lower-40s. Not THAT much colder but a 5-6 degree anomaly will register bright blue on some of the maps you might see from NWS and/or weather news. 62-63 still feels like a great spring day, especially in the sun. So IMO the temps aren’t that big of a deal. With our global pattern heading into an El Nino, this summer could be quite hot. With that said, I am okay with some cooler spring days. But now let’s talk rain. It looks like a weak and unorganized coastal disturbance will start our unsettled pattern Thursday into Friday and then keep us wet on-and-off through the weekend. Basically, the weak coastal moves through (Thursday/Friday) then hands back to a lake cutting low (Sunday-Monday), which then reforms and retrogrades back towards a weak coastal storm pattern to end (by May 5th). A very unsettled pattern from this coming Friday (April 28) to next Friday (May 5). We should then return to at least an average pattern (temps near-70 or greater) to push into the first weekend of May. I understand there is going to me some moaning and groaning about the next 10-14 days being colder and wetter. Unfortunately, there’s not much we can do except to let it wash over us.
Monday (April 24) high temperatures should push into the mid-to-upper 50s, maybe a few spots just break 60. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from mid-30s to mid-40s from elevations to coasts with a few showers around mainly for NNJ/NWNJ. Any overnight frost potential should remain away from the ocean.
Tuesday (April 25) high temperatures should reach near-60 for most NJ areas. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Can’t rule out a few passing showers. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from mid-30s to mid-40s again from elevations to coasts with frost potential away from the ocean.
Wednesday (April 26) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 60s. Skies should be mixed with more clouds than sun with more rain possible. Winds should be light out of the S/SE. Overnight lows should range from upper-30s to near-50 from elevations to coasts. Clouds and showers should linger into Thursday.
Thursday (April 27) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 60s. Skies should start cloudy with some rain showers around but improve through late-morning/afternoon. Winds should be light out of the N/NE. Overnight lows should range from 40 to 50 from elevations to coasts.
Friday (April 28) high temperatures should reach near-60 for most areas. Skies should be mostly cloudy with more rain possible. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the E, breeziest along the immediate ECNJ/SENJ coasts. Overnight lows should range from 40 to 50 from elevations to coasts.
An early look at the weekend indicates temperatures reaching near-60 with clouds and on-and-off rain. A very unsettled look from this range. The cooler/wetter pattern should extend through this weekend into next week and come to an end around May 5/6. I sympathize with the moaning and groaning. We’d all like to see 70s and sun this time of year rather than near-60 and damp/raw. Let’s see how everything looks in a few days. Have a great week and please be safe! JC
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Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC