Discussion: A weak wave could scrape NNJ with flurries/snow showers Friday afternoon-evening but little-to-no accumulation is expected. Departing high pressure should then establish in the W Atlantic and re-enforce warmer southerly flow as a weak low tracks through NJ from W/SW to E/NE. This should bring mild periods of moderate-to-heavy rainfall across NJ between Saturday and Sunday (up to 2.5”). Rainfall should taper off by Sunday evening with falling temperatures overnight. The upper-level dynamics associated with this surface low are rather unexciting. The frontal boundary might stick around for the early part of next week which could mean light rain. The next 1-2 weeks appear to be unfavorable for winter storm development. The last week of February into March is too far out to make definitive synoptic statements. I’m monitoring the expected stratospheric split of the polar vortex as well as the expected MJO propagation from phase 8 into 1. ECM weeklies are mild and uneventful as well but back in January they also suggested these next two weeks would be cold and favorable for winter storm development. I could care less which way winter plays out from here. But I’ll be sure to report on it accurately one 7-day forecasting period at a time. Can I guarantee a snow storm before winter’s end? No. Can I guarantee winter is over? No. We have ~6 weeks of winter left and years like 1993, 2003, 2014 and last year (for NNJ) remind us to keep our guard up through at least the ides of March.
Real quick: Tonight will be another cold one. Teens for NNJ (possibly single-digits for NNJ elevations) and 20s for the rest of NJ including the SNJ coast. Skies should be partly cloudy with light west winds.
Friday (Feb 9) high temperatures should range from 30-40 NNJ to SNJ. Skies should be partly sunny with flurries/snow showers possible for far-NWNJ during afternoon-evening hours. Little to no accumulation is expected however. Winds should be light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should range from upper-20s to 40 NNJ to SNJ (30s for most).
Saturday (Feb 10) high temperatures should range from mid-40s to lower-50s NNJ to SNJ. Skies should transition from partly cloudy to mostly cloudy from S to N. Rainfall is possible during the day and should spread into NJ from S to N. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the S. Overnight lows should fall into the 40s for most as rainfall continues.
Sunday (Feb 11) high temperatures could be held to the upper-40s for NNJ but parts of SNJ could flirt with 60. Skies should be mostly cloudy with periods of moderate-to-heavy rainfall. Up to 2.5 inches of rainfall are possible for most from Saturday-Sunday. Rain should end by evening hours. Overnight lows should range from upper-20s to lower-40s NNJ to SNJ once everything clears out.
An early look at next week indicates milder temperatures. I’m thinking highs in the 40s and 50s with some early-week light rain possible. Let’s revisit on Sunday.
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Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™