Late-Summer Warmth Hangs On

Discussion: I’m seeing the anomalously high geopotential height anomalies over SE Canada lasting though our entire forecast period…out through next weekend. If you’re a snow lover, you want to see this type of block over Greenland, not over SE Canada. But it’s a block regardless that will try to trap lower heights beneath it. And given the lower heights being modeled to the S and W of NJ, this tells me meteorologically that Tuesday PM-forward looks unsettled without even looking at lower-level precip modeling. We’ll be on the front side of the lower heights (trough or upper low) which means the rainy side. In looking at the lower-level modeling, there’s multiple rain events possible anytime after Tuesday afternoon. We can assume we’ll be dry this weekend and until then. But after Tuesday afternoon, it looks like a bunch of coastal disturbance that could bring prolonged periods of rain to NJ at times through the rest of next week and weekend, even into the start of the following week. There should be some dry periods between so not everyday a washout. But likely prolonged periods of rainfall more significant than just a frontal system. Getting back to this weekend, expect the warm and dry conditions to continue where NJ areas away from the ocean easily push into the 80s (maybe flirting with 90) while coasties stay in the mid-to-upper 70s/near-80. Temps should fall each night into the 55-65 range. Not as chilly as earlier this week but still nice enough to open up if you can. The humidity profile should remain similar as well through at least Monday…elevations and away from the ocean feeling the driest while coasties get a little muggy at times. Humidity should begin increasing for all of NJ as soon as Monday night ahead of the unsettled period beginning Tuesday afternoon.

Friday (Sept 13) high temperatures are maxing in the low-to-mid 80s for much of NJ. Coastal regions are likely pinned in the upper-70s (like most of this week). Skies should remain mostly sunny/clear with very light wind in any direction (a little more onshore along coast). Overnight lows should range from low-50s to mid-60s from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

Saturday (Sept 14) high temperatures should reach the mid-80s, possibly a little higher, away from the ocean. Coastal areas will likely remain trapped in the mid-to-upper 70s, maybe just touching 80. There could be fog in the morning but once that lifts, skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the E/NE…lighter away from the ocean and breezier right along such. Overnight lows should range from 55-65 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

Sunday (Sept 15) high temperatures should reach near-80 for most NJ locations. Skies should be mostly sunny, after another potentially foggy start in the morning. Winds should be remain light-to-breezy out of the E/NE (like Saturday). Overnight lows should range from low-50s to low-60s from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

An early look at next week (Sept 16-20) indicates more of the same for Monday-Tuesday AM. Temps then drop a few degrees for Tuesday PM-forward but not without unsettled conditions lingering through next weekend. It won’t be a washout every day but likely prolonged periods of rainfall at times. I’ll have a better handle on that with next week’s outlook (released on Monday). Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™