June 2020 Outlook

It’s time to harness WeatherTrends360 technology and look at how the rest of June 2020 should play out. WeatherTrends360 algorithms are documented with an 84% verification rate and are based on oceanic water cycles, time table series and very complex mathematics. The best takeaway from this data are general trends (cool vs warm, rainy vs dry, etc). I’m always hesitant to forecast specific surface conditions (rainfall amounts, snowfall amounts, winds, etc) beyond the 7 -day forecasting period. But general temperature and precipitation trends are what WeatherTrends360 does best with their proprietary mathematical analysis derived from over 150 years of reactive pattern data. For this reason, let’s call this a long-range discussion of reasonable expectations rather than a locked-in long-range forecast. You’ll never see me commit to specific surface conditions outside of the 7-day forecasting period.

The following diagram is calculated using WeatherTrends360 proprietary algorithms for New Jersey in general. Please keep in mind that micro-climate influences can vary. NWNJ elevations and SNJ Pine Barrens (away from the ocean), for example, will verify slightly colder than illustrated due to elevation and soil heat exchange. Interior CNJ/SNJ (closer to N Delaware/Philly/Trenton – I-95 corridor into NENJ) slightly warmer than illustrated due to urban heat island effect and several other influencing factors. All areas of NJ however would have similar graph trends and sky conditions. It’s best to let the following graph paint an overall picture (trends) instead of focusing on the low-level specific condition details.

Discussion: As you can see we look warm and unsettled today through Saturday night/Sunday morning. No single day looks like a washout but showers and thunderstorms are very possible. A strong cold front is then expected to move through by Sunday morning which should leave NJ with more majestic weather (like this past Sunday-Tuesday) for this Sunday-Tuesday with N/NW flow. More warmth and humidity is then expected to build from about June 10-forward for the rest of June with seasonably average temperatures and precipitation. It’s too difficult to estimate any specific rain or storm events beyond June 10 however just please remember that June is typically a stormy month. The sun angle is at its peak for our latitude which allows maximum diurnal instability development.

In English: Expect a warm and unsettled period between now and early Sunday morning followed by majestic weather Sunday-Tuesday (June 7-9). We’re talking dry and pleasant feeling highs in the lower-70s and overnight lows in the 50s. Traditional June warmth (highs in the 80s lows in the 60s) and humidity should then rebuild from Wednesday (June 10) and beyond with average precipitation amounts expected. There might be a few nights here and there where temps dip into the 50s, especially for NNJ/Elevations. But for the most part we’re well on our way to the warmest part of the year. Everyone have a great month and please be safe! JC

Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™