Short range guidance is narrowing in on a solution that should impact the timing of rainfall through tomorrow. Clouds will continue to build today with a few initial isolated showers this afternoon-early evening. The heavier rains now looks to fall during overnight hours. Let’s call it 9PM tonight through 5AM tomorrow. By 9-10AM, the heavier rains should be out to sea with just nuisance isolated showers that will be fizzling out through noon.
So overall, the storm looks to clear earlier, allowing for a more salvageable Father’s Day tomorrow. So now that it appears to start later today and clear out earlier tomorrow, let’s talk about overnight impacts. Here’s the latest high-res NAM showing “more than just widespread rainfall” between 2-3AM overnight tonight:
In my opinion this looks to be more of a convective nature. The above model image shows strong similarities to a MCS (Mesoscale Convective System). With that said, I would expect decent thunderstorm potential embedded within the heavy rainfall. I wouldn’t be surprised to see severe thunderstorm warnings into at least the Baltimore-Philadelphia-Trenton region around/just after midnight. This would mean a rough overnight hit for W parts of SNJ and CNJ. By the time the energy gets to the NYC-Long Island region, thunderstorm energy should weaken—meaning less lightning and just heavy downpours.
This next image represents total expected (modeled) precipitation through tomorrow 2PM tomorrow. Again though, I think we clear earlier tomorrow than most were expecting (at least the heavier rains). Don’t shoot me if a few lingering showers are passing through late-morning/early-afternoon. They will be random if so:
In English: Light rain is possible later today (late-afternoon through early evening). Heavier rain should pick up by 10PM from west to east and possibly feature gusty thunderstorms. I’ll be paying close attention to potential storm energy. The heaviest rain should fall between midnight and 5AM tomorrow. Showers should taper off by 10AM with just a few isolated lingering showers through about noon. Best I can do. Be safe! JC
Model images used with permission from WeatherBell Analytics.
Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™