July Discussion with WeatherTrends360

It’s time to harness the WeatherTrends360 proprietary weather algorithms to see how the rest of July 2018 should play out. But first lets break New Jersey into climatologically-similar regions. We have the higher elevations of NNJ/NWNJ, the interior coastal plain and Newark Basin (SWNJ through CNJ and into NENJ), and the coastal regions (most of SENJ coast – Sandy Hook down and around Cape May into Delaware Bay). I’ll be representing each climatological region with a 28-day graph from weathertrends360 data followed by a brief discussion.

Please keep in mind that these algorithms are documented with an 84% verification rate and are based on oceanic water cycles, time table series and very complex mathematics. The best takeaway from this data are general trends (cool vs warm, rainy vs dry, etc). I’m always hesitant to forecast specific surface conditions (rainfall amounts, snowfall amounts, winds, etc) beyond the 7 -day forecasting period. But temperature and precipitation trends are what WeatherTrends360 does best with their proprietary mathematical analysis derived from over 150 years of reactive pattern data. For this reason, let’s call this a long-range discussion of expectations rather than a locked-in long-range forecast.

Higher Elevations of NNJ/NWNJ

(Sussex, Warren, Hunterdon, Morris, N. Somerset, and N. Passaic) – Known for little to no Atlantic Ocean influence, colder-snowier winters, and drier conditions in general when compared to the coast. This rnown to get hot when high pressure sits overhead during the summer and bitterly cold during Arctic outbreaks in the winter. Elevation is a major influence that separates this micro-climate from the rest of New Jersey. This region extends into NE PA (Poconos) and parts of NY State (Catskills).

Higher Elevation Discussion: The Bermuda high has been hanging out off the E US which is responsible for sustaining the hot ridge. An area of Canadian high pressure will eventually push a cold front through NJ from NW to SE heading into this coming weekend. As the graph indicates, you should expect rain and thunderstorms during this transition. We’ll then have a period of N/NW flow which should cool temperatures down in that July 7-10 period. The lower dew points should feel majestic but not to worry, it will still feel summery given the peak sun angle and high UV index! For this region, we’re talking highs in the upper-70s and lows in the upper-50s. We should then rebound back to the hotter (highs in the upper-80s/lower-90s) and more humid conditions for the July 11-15 period before beginning our initial descent of average temperatures as we head towards August. For this region that should be low-to-mid 80s for highs and low-to-mid 60s for lows. Most July precipitation should be from frontal activity not from synoptic systems (from t-storms not from widespread rain systems).

Interior Coastal Plain and Newark Basin from SWNJ-CNJ-NENJ

(Salem, Gloucester, Camden, W. Burlington, Mercer, W. Monmouth, Middlesex, S. Somerset, Union, Essex, Hudson, Bergen, and S. Passaic) – Known for naturally higher temperatures due to lower elevations away from the oceanic influence. This region is also known as “heat island” due to transportation (I-95 corridor), smog, abundant asphalt, concrete, and other man-made substances that naturally absorb and retain heat moreso than natural protected land. This is why excessive heat warnings and air quality alerts are more common in this region. SWNJ always tends to run a few degrees warmer than NENJ but this region is very similar otherwise in micro-climate due to the parallel nature of the Appalachian Mountain elevations to the NW. The same micro-climate can be extended into SE PA and NE MD which tends to run just a little stormier than NJ. This however is what makes up the interior coastal plain.

Interior Coastal Plain and Newark Basin Discussion: The Bermuda high has been hanging out off the E US which is responsible for sustaining the hot ridge. An area of Canadian high pressure will eventually push a cold front through NJ from NW to SE heading into this coming weekend. As the graph indicates, you should expect rain and thunderstorms during this transition. We’ll then have a period of N/NW flow which should cool temperatures down in that July 7-10 period. The lower dew points should feel majestic but not to worry, it will still feel summery given the peak sun angle and high UV index! For this region, we’re talking highs in the lower-80s and lows in the lower-60s. We should then rebound back to the hotter (highs in the 90s) and more humid conditions for the July 11-15 period before beginning our initial descent of average temperatures as we head towards August. For this region that should be mid-to-upper 80s for highs and upper-60s for lows. Most July precipitation should be from frontal activity not from synoptic systems (from t-storms not from widespread rain systems).

Coastal Regions of SENJ

(Cumberland, Cape May, Atlantic, E. Burlington, Ocean, and E. Monmouth) – Known for tremendous influence from the Atlantic Ocean. Oceanic influence keeps this zone cooler in the summer and warmer in the winter than the interior coastal plain and especially the higher elevations of NWNJ. In the summer, sea breeze fronts back into the coast and can ignite thunderstorms if enough instability is present. The cooler marine air slides under the hot air to the W and provides additional atmospheric lifting. This is both why it’s 5-15 degrees cooler at the shore than the Philly-Trenton area and why near-stationary thunderstorms can form along the coast capable of producing localized flash flooding. In the winter, the ocean is warmer than interior regions which plays a huge role in rain vs. snow—highly dependent on wind direction. When the winds chance from NE to N/NE, that’s usually when temps crash and change rain over to snow. Regardless, this micro-climate is well known, well documented and well expressed. This region extends into most of Delaware as well.

Coastal Region Discussion: The Bermuda high has been hanging out off the E US which is responsible for sustaining the hot ridge. An area of Canadian high pressure will eventually push a cold front through NJ from NW to SE heading into this coming weekend. As the graph indicates, you should expect rain and thunderstorms during this transition. We’ll then have a period of N/NW flow which should cool temperatures down in that July 7-10 period. The lower dew points should feel majestic but not to worry, it will still feel summery given the peak sun angle and high UV index! For this region, we’re talking highs in the mid-70s and lows near-60s. We should then rebound back to the hotter (highs in the 90s) and more humid conditions for the July 11-15 period before beginning our initial descent of average temperatures as we head towards August. For this region that should be mid-to-upper 80s for highs and near-70 for lows. This area should now feel the warmer buffer of sea surface temperatures especially during overnight hours. No longer does onshore flow ruin the day! Most July precipitation should be from frontal activity not from synoptic systems (from t-storms not from widespread rain systems).

In English: So basically we finish the hot and humid wave this Friday as rain and thunderstorms usher in a not-as hot and drier air mass in for the weekend. By mid-week next week we become hot and humid again through next weekend. After that we moderate in the temperature swings and slowly descent in average temperature as we move into August. The tropics are quiet right now mainly due to the colder waters in the traditional Cape Verde formation zone. Waters are warmer closer to the US so we cannot let our guard down if something forms short-range. Nothing is expected in the near-term but things could change as we head out of July into August. I’ll post about anything that threatens the east coast but until then I recommend you relax and enjoy the weather the best you can. Have a great July 2018 and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™