July 15: Improving Conditions Expected

What a mess in SENJ this morning! Lots of flash flooding and even a few wind gusts that met severe criteria. The good news is that the surface low pressure system responsible for such is well out to sea and will continue to dissolve. Also, the approaching cold front is well into NNJ and will continue to push SE through this afternoon and early evening. We have just a few lingering showers and thunderstorms riding the cold front to deal with but then we’re home free.

The specific locations of these remaining cells are currently in SEPA, NWNJ, and CT with a few pushing S through SENJ coastal regions. If you notice, these cells are now all moving almost due S since they are now on the west side of the departing low’s cyclonic flow. Despite the smaller size of these cells, they can still produce short periods of heavy downpours and occasionally a few strikes of lightning. While most of New Jersey will see an earlier clearing, we have to allow at least until sunset for this cold front activity to push through completely.

Moving forward, this evening through at least Saturday morning looks great with plenty of sunshine and lower humidity. We can thank a high pressure system tracking to our N (from the Great Lakes through New England) for this over the next few days. We’re talking lows in the 50s tonight for the higher elevations of NNJ (60s elsewhere in NJ). We’re also talking about highs struggling to break 80 with pleasant humidity levels tomorrow and Friday. It should feel fantastic!

As of right now, the weekend looks to start an unsettled period that could span from Saturday through Tuesday. While neither of these days should constitute a complete washout, scattered showers and thunderstorms (hit or miss nature) would be possible with warmer temperatures and elevated humidity. Another cold front will be advancing through slowly and that will likely be the culprit. I’ll have the full weekend outlook posted tomorrow evening but that’s how it currently looks.

In English: Rain has already ended for some/most but should end for all by sunset this evening. Tonight, tomorrow and Friday look beautiful. Saturday through Tuesday looks unsettled as humidity and storm chances return. Be safe! JC

Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC