Discussion: Thunderstorms are arriving from SW to NE along and just NW of the I-95 corridor. Initial activity moving into NWNJ is weak sauce but some stronger storms are moving out of the Baltimore/Wilmington area towards Philadelphia and Trenton. Most daylight activity today should be confined to WNJ in general but could still produce severe conditions.
A more organized linear segment of thunderstorms should push through all of NJ tonight between about 7pm and 11pm. There might be some remnant energy that fires off after 11pm tonight into early-Friday AM hours but the main event looks like this evening.
The most impressive dynamic that stands out to me is Precipitable WATer (PWAT). The entire garden state is under PWAT values of 1.5 or greater. This tells me that flash flooding is easily achievable from mature thunderstorm cells. Instability and wind shear are nothing crazy but still marginally sufficient enough to still support severe thunderstorm development. As in most cases, SENJ/ENJ are a little less favored than NWNJ/WNJ for the worst of it due to marine influence and other coastal thunderstorm inhibiting factors. Don’t let your guard down however as the threat is statewide.
Once this all clears out (with the cold front) during the early AM hours of tomorrow (Friday) the entire rest of the weekend looks clear and sunny thanks to a weak area of high pressure moving through. Temperatures should be warm throughout the weekend with humidity gradually transitioning from drier to muggy by Sunday. This will correlate with drier N flow ahead of the high and muggier S flow behind the high. Then next week we bake under the stubborn ridge.
In English: Thunderstorms are starting to impact SWNJ and this activity should spread into CNJ/SNJ by late-afternoon. A broad line of thunderstorms should then consolidate and push through all of NJ from W to E between about 7pm and 11pm. Thunderstorms could be severe (wind and/or hail) and feature flash flooding from heavy downpours. Everything should taper off between midnight and sunrise tomorrow yielding a clear, sunny and summery weekend. Be safe! JC
Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™