A clipper will bring light snow throughout our region as it passes through the northern part of our coverage area tomorrow night into Friday morning. It doesn’t look like a super cold clipper with typical 20+:1 snow ratios (inches of snow for every inch of liquid). Perhaps 12-15:1 is a better number given the temperature profile. With that said, SNJ/SENJ “might” see a period of sleet, freezing rain and/or rain mixed in—further knocking down the chance for accumulations. That will have to be now-casted. The jackpot zone should be in the higher NWNJ elevations associated with the Appalachian Mountains. Nothing crazy though…this is what I’m thinking:
Superbowl Sunday was kicked out to the SE today by both the GFS and Euro. The northern side of the precipitation shield does nick New Jersey with highest amounts in SNJ but it just wasn’t that impressive. Here’s the latest GFS (early Monday morning – first arrives during/just after Superbowl) which is even a little more aggressive than the Euro. They would both lead to light accumulations south of I-195 (Trenton<->Manasquan):
Today’s Canadian GEM was much more aggressive with a tightly wrapped up low over Long Island Monday evening. If you look at the following image and draw a horizontal line through the flat part of the L in the low, everyone south of that would face temperature issues that would bring sleet, freezing rain and/or rain but still yield some light accumulations. Everyone to the north of that would see moderate to heavy snow accumulations. Again, this is aggressive and stands alone in my favorite guidance to watch during this time period (GFS, Canadian and Euro). Will have to see who caves to who. #ModelWars
In English: Expect some light snow tomorrow night into Friday morning with NWNJ favored and SNJ/SENJ subject to temperature mixing issues. I’ll be watching Sunday night into Monday as we further approach. Be safe! JC
Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™