We’re about 54 hours away from our weekend winter storm. Here’s my snow map:
The light pink area is subject to lesser snowfall amounts due to possible mixing. Expect 40-60mph wind gusts off the ocean along with moderate to high risk of coastal flooding.
The darker blue area should be far enough away from the ocean to remain mostly or all snow. This includes New York City.
The purple area has the greatest chance for Kaboom but I have not issued a Kaboom yet. I will do so if we still look like this on Friday before the storm begins.
The light blue and light gray areas represent a sharp cutoff in precipitation due to high pressure and very dry air to the north. Precipitation will hit an absolute wall and where that wall sets up is a difficult call.
Again, this is my initial map. I’ll likely release a 2nd call tomorrow evening and a final call Friday before precipitation begins. Adjustments are likely but nothing major.
In English: This winter storm should occur between late Friday night and early Sunday morning. The coast should see high winds, flooding, and mixed precipitation but still a decent amount of snow. Interior NJ has the best chance for a Kaboom. Extreme NNJ is flirting with a sharp cut-off in precipitation. This storm could be historic for DC/Baltimore accumulations and coastal flooding. As far as snowfall goes in New Jersey and the New York City metro area, we’re likely just looking at a big snow storm. Whether or not blizzard conditions will be met are yet TBD but there is a good chance given the potential winds and snowfall. Have a great night and be safe! JC
Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC