Insanely Nice Conditions

Discussion: The upper jet should stay to the N of NJ this weekend before crossing S over NJ briefly Tues-Wed and ultimately returning N of NJ by Thursday of next week. This will set the stages for an abnormally warm Saturday (records could be reached for March 29), a cooler period Tues-Wed, and then more warmth next Thursday-forward. 500mb analysis indicates ridging the primary upper level look for NJ over the next 7-10 days with only a temporary weak trough correlating with the brief jet dip Tues-Wed. Some showers could move through tonight (Friday night) as the warm front and SW flow takes over. Saturday (tomorrow) will be a day in the warm sector…again, abnormally warm with stiff SW winds. It’s only logical to assume that thermal lifting, over the warmer I-95 corridor and big cities, without a capping inversion could vacuum some colder air off the ocean onto at least the immediate ECNJ/SENJ coasts on Saturday. Temps should still spike above 70 but any sort of sea breeze front will quickly chill the coast down as sea surface temperatures are still below 50. The SW winds might keep this just along the immediate coast. But if the inland thermal lifting becomes too strong, then colder ocean air could be pulled further W than the GSP. Going to have to wait and see on that. Next week then looks mixed with warmth, coolness, rain, storms, etc. while still continuing the general climatological temp climb into April. I do see a colder period in the April 6-9 range if guidance is correct in suggesting a trough just to our E/ridge to our W. This would produce a period of N/NW flow. That’s the only hiccup I see as we continue our ascent into the warmer spring months.

Forecast

Friday (March 28) high temperatures reached the upper-50s/lower-60s for most NJ areas. Some areas took a run at 70 away from the ocean in CNJ/SNJ. Skies should remain clear late-afternoon with clouds moving in by early evening. Some clouds, and showers, could pass through later Friday evening/overnight into Saturday morning as SW winds pick up (“spring blowing in”). Highs should stay just above 50 for most NJ locations. A good night to open the windows if your situation allows.

Saturday (March 29) high temperatures should push over 80 in the traditionally warmer NJ locations (away from the ocean in SNJ/CNJ). Coastal areas should still push over 70. Record warm temps are possible for March 29. Skies should be mixed with more sun than clouds. Winds should remain breezy out of the SW. Overnight lows should fall back to the 45-55 range NNJ to SNJ.

Sunday (March 30) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 60s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mixed with more clouds than sun with showers possible here and there. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the S/SE, breeziest along the SENJ coast. Overnight lows should fall back to the 50-55 range NNJ to SNJ with more clouds and showers likely into Monday morning.

An early look at next week (March 31-April 4) indicates a mixed bag of conditions. Monday seems warm again, not as warm as this Saturday, but def 70s. Tuesday-Wednesday cooler and cloudier with highs in the 50s/lower-60s. Thursday looks warm and wet (near-70 with clouds and showers). Thunderstorms possible Friday to set up more mixed conditions next Sat-Sun. Everyone have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC