Discussion: An E US ridge should dominate the weather pattern for the next week of so (this weekend and next week). This will allow for milder conditions (for this time of year) but also a few rain chances (Saturday and Wed PM-Thurs AM). A trough is then expected to undercut the ridge and move through NJ next weekend, bringing at least rain, possibly some snow, to NJ. This is a long-range signal gaining support however the temperature profile looks a little warm for the first half of the system (next Friday-Saturday). It’s the second half of the system I’m interested in which would be next Saturday night into Sunday (March 9-10). I’ll be following, especially after this weekend when next weekend comes more into range.
Friday (March 1) high temperatures will try hard to break 50 but some spots could fall just short in the mid-to-upper 40s. Skies should remain mostly sunny for the rest of the day. Rain should push in later tonight (Friday) which could graze extreme NWNJ elevations with some mixed wintry precipitation overnight but with little-to-no accumulation. Winds should remain light out of the S. Overnight lows should range from 30-40 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.
Saturday (March 2) high temperatures should range from 45-55 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts. Skies should be mostly cloudy with periods of on-and-off rain likely clearing around sunset. Winds should be light out of the E/NE, slightly breezier along the ECNJ/SENJ coasts. Overnight lows should fall to the low-to-mid 40s for most NJ locations as skies continue to clear.
Sunday (March 3) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 60s for all NJ locations away from the ocean. Coastal areas (ECNJ/SENJ) should hang in the mid-50s due to marine influence. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. A little sunnier for SNJ. A little cloudier for NNJ. Winds should be light out of the N/NW. Overnight lows should fall to the low-to-mid 40s for most NJ locations.
An early look at next week indicates highs in the low-60s away from the ocean and mid-50s along the coast. Seeing a frontal system Wednesday night into Thursday morning followed by a very unsettled weekend that includes a storm signal. Right now it looks kind of warm for snow accumulation. But a mix of snow and rain could indeed fall. I’ll be watching this more closely after this weekend. For now, have a great weekend and please be safe! JC
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Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC