Immaculate Start. Unsettled Finish.

Discussion: It doesn’t get more comfortable than today’s feel. High sun angle, reasonably warm temps with low humidity, light breeze…the kind of stuff that should be bottled and sold. Though it’s not the tropical beachgoer’s preference (90+ with 70+ dews), it’s hard to argue that today is a bad summer day. But don’t worry, the heat and humidity will return soon enough. A quick mention of the last two thunderstorm events (last Sunday – primarily hit SNJ and this past Wednesday – primarily hit NNJ). The entire state was souped up with instability, shear, and lifting. The best dynamics will always do what they do best which is chaotically defy reason. All of NJ was prepared. Again, you prepare for the worst, hope for the best, and endure the reality. I get that people like lightning. I get that we need rain. But was anyone actually upset they missed out on 60mph+ wind gusts and hail?

Today is immaculate out from high pressure/N flow moving in. We’ll transition to a warmer and more humid feel by Saturday late-morning (as flow switches to S). A warm front will first move through around sunrise Saturday morning and could bring a few brief shower/rumbles but that will clear out by 7am. The rest of the day then looks warmer and humid until more rain/storms approach from the W. The jury is still out on how late they will arrive and how much rain will dump. The latest data has trended dryer and later with each run. It might only be Saturday night overnight through Sunday where we see rain/storms. Not a widespread washout though…isolated-to-scattered type stuff IMO. Next week, after a brief break Monday, we return to routine heat and humidity and that should last through the 4^th of July and next weekend. No widespread thunderstorm events showing as of now but certainly iso pop-ups likely.

Friday (June 28) high temperatures are currently (as of 115pm Friday) into the 70s for all areas except some immediate coastal regions trapped in the mid-to-upper 60s. Dew points are in the 40s for many, some just over 50, which is the reason why it feels so refreshing and comfortable. Areas away from the ocean should push into mid-to-upper 70s/near-80 by late-afternoon while the immediate coast comes up just over 70. Skies should remain mostly sunny. Winds should remain light-to-breezy out of the E (breeziest along the coast). Overnight lows should fall to a range of 55-68 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

Saturday (June 29) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 80s away from the ocean and mid-70s for coastal regions. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds to start with noticeably returning humidity. If you are up for it, you might see an early AM shower before/around sunrise. Showers and thunderstorms are then possible from late-afternoon and forward. I believe they hold off until at least 2-3pm, hopefully longer for outdoor interests. The latest data has been showing less and less rain each run as well as a later start time. It could very well work out that all daylight hours are mostly dry (despite the humidity) with the frontal activity occurring overnight into Sunday. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the S (breeziest along SNJ/SENJ coasts). Overnight lows should stay in the low-to-mid 70s as showers and thunderstorm chances persist into Sunday morning.

Sunday (June 30) high temperatures should reach or exceed 90 for most areas away from the ocean. Coastal regions should push just over 80. Skies should be mostly cloudy with scattered rain and thunderstorms possible all day. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the SW. Overnight lows should fall back to a range of 55-65 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts as shower/storm chances persist.   

An early look at next week indicates more heat and humidity after a quick break Monday (post storms). Wednesday and Thursday (July 4^th) look the hottest. This  forecast expectation currently goes through July 4^th weekend as well. No specific storm outbreak periods showing yet but certainly the daily chance of afternoon/evening pop-ups. Have a great weekend and please be safe.

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™