Discussion: Return flow on the back side of the Bermuda high should remain locked through the weekend. This should maintain the status quo of heat, humidity, unsettled conditions and all the fun stuff that comes with a tropical air mass. As each day of the weekend progresses, the chances for showers and thunderstorms diminish. So Friday has the stormiest chance. Saturday a so-so chance. And Sunday likely being the driest day. The Bermuda high is expected to break down around ~August 8 which should allow cold fronts through the region again afterward. That’s another story for next week and beyond but the pattern does look to eventually break. Unsettled conditions leave first around Aug 8-10 followed by the departure of heat and humidity around ~Aug 15.
Friday (Aug 3) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 80s for most, maybe mid-to-upper 80s for interior CNJ/SNJ. Skies should be partly sunny with showers and thunderstorms possible, especially during afternoon-evening hours. The theme has been NWNJ favored over SENJ which could easily hold serve. Humidity should remain noticeably elevated. Winds should be light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should fall to near-70 statewide.
Saturday (Aug 4) high temperatures should reach the mid-80s for most. Interior CNJ/SNJ has the best chance to take a run at 90. Skies should be partly sunny with a humid feel. Showers and thunderstorms are possible Saturday morning but once clear, the rest of the day should be ok for outdoor activities. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should fall to near-70 for most, maybe down to mid-60s for NNJ elevations.
Sunday (Aug 5) high temperatures should break 90 in many locations. NNJ elevations and coastal regions have the best chance to hang in the 80s. Skies should be partly sunny with a humid feel. Only a small chance of sea breeze-driven activity exists which is far from a guarantee. Let’s go with a 20% chance only if a sea breeze front develops. Otherwise Sunday looks like the sunniest and driest day of the weekend if you can forgive the humidity. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should range from mid-60s to mid-70s NNJ to SNJ.
An early look at next week indicates a hot and humid start. The Bermuda high should begin to break down mid-week which should produce more of a settled pattern with less humidity (not total reduction in humidity). The warmer temperatures however should linger until mid-August. Let’s take a look in a few days. Everyone have a great weekend and please be safe! JC
Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC