This weekend will feature a period of transition—starting with warmth, humidity and storms and ending with fall-like conditions. The threat of showers and thunderstorms exists slightly this afternoon-evening but moreso on Saturday. Let’s look at each day:
Friday will reach well into the 80s for daytime high temperatures. Interior regions could flirt with breaking 90. Light S/SW flow will keep the humidity levels highs. If the sun can diurnally heat the surface enough to destabilize the lower atmosphere, there will be enough energy and moisture available to spark afternoon thunderstorms. Overnight lows should only drop to about 70 (upper-60s for higher elevations of NWNJ).
Saturday should be 1-2 degrees warmer than Friday with more SW flow and increased humidity. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible in the afternoon (hit-or-miss nature). Model guidance then has higher concentrations of rain/storms moving through late-afternoon into the evening. Storms will be riding a cold front and could reach severe criteria so please be careful. The cold front tomorrow evening should transform the tropical air mass into fall-like weather. Overnight lows into Sunday should drop well into the 60s and possibly even the 50s for interior/higher elevations.
Sunday will be a completely different ballgame with highs struggling to break 80 and light northerly flow. The day should start cloudy with remnant overcast eventually giving way to a mixed bag of sun and clouds. The humidity will be substantially less than Friday-Saturday. Overnight lows should then drop into the 50s (lower-60s for coastal regions). The week looks to start pleasant, sunny, and dry with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s through at least Wednesday.
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Be safe and have a great weekend! JC
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Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™