Hot Start (June 22-26)

Discussion: The upper-jet is pretty far N of NJ. I don’t need to tell you that the surface warm front is through. It should stay this way through Wednesday with NJ firmly planted in a warm sector. Sometime in the ~Wednesday period a cold front should push through as a dry disintegrating precipitation front. This will correlate with the bottom of a trough but it likely won’t be long-lived. This should give us a little bit of relief for at least Thursday and Friday. It’s yet TBD if this will bleed over into Saturday. By Sunday ridging should build in the E US again and temps/humidity should rise again. Saturday could go either way (warm and drier vs hot and humid) though depending on the speed of the warm front arrival. I see no major frontal outbreaks of severe weather. However, any day pretty much holds the chance for isolated-to-scattered pop-up showers and thunderstorms. It’s just that time of year. Keep an eye and you should most likely be okay.

Note: Unless specifically mentioned by location (Example: NNJ elevations, SENJ immediate coast, Interior CNJ/SNJ, etc.) assume the following forecasts are statewide for New Jersey. Directions are shortened (N = North, S = South, W/SW = West/SouthWest, etc.).

Monday (June 22) high temperatures are nearing 90 now for many areas. Immediate coastal areas are in the upper-70s from marine influence. Dew point temperatures are in the upper-60s for most areas which means it’s humid. Skies should remain mixed with sun and summery clouds with only a small chance of an isolated shower or boomer. Winds are light out of the S and should remain that way overnight as most area temps struggle to dip below 70.

Tuesday (June 23) high temperatures should reach near or just break 90 for most areas away from the ocean. ECNJ/SENJ coastal areas could hang closer to 80. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds with a humid feel. Chances for pop-up showers and thunderstorms remain on the table. Winds should remain light out of the S. Overnight lows should fall to near-70.

Wednesday (June 24) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 80s. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds with a humid feel. Winds should be light out of the W. Overnight lows should range from near-60 to near-70 NNJ to SNJ.

Thursday (June 25) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 80s. Skies should be mostly sunn with a continued humid feel. There might be some showers around in the morning and a few isolated showers/boomers in the late-afternoon. But most of the day should be fine. Winds should be light out of the SE. Overnight lows should range from near-60 to near-70 NNJ to SNJ.

Friday (June 26) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 80s. Skies should be mixed with mostly sun and some friendly clouds. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from upper-50s to upper-60s NNJ to SNJ.

An early look at the weekend indicates more typical summery conditions…highs into at least the mid-80s, lows in the mid-to-upper 60s, mostly sun and clouds but chances of pop-up showers/boomers during PM hours. The only wildcard I am still watching is humidity levels. If the mid-week front can hold a cooler and drier air mass in place through Saturday then only the end of the weekend will be on the hot side. Let’s revisit this idea in a few days. Have a great week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™