Hot Start Comfortable Finish (June 12-16)

After a hazy, hot and humid start, we moderate some. Let’s break it down…

Discussion: The 250mb jet guidance indicates that the strongest stream winds will remain to our N this week. At 500mb, above-average height anomalies look to hang on, even if just barely. The headline of the mid-to-upper levels this week will be a new area of high pressure traveling to the traditional Bermuda high location (where high pressure currently exists). During this transition, a period of onshore flow will revolve around the high’s S/SW side of anti-cyclonic flow. Since the immediate offshore waters are still in the low-to-mid 60s, it should cool New Jersey down some. Right now this period is looking like late-Wednesday through early Friday period. Once the Bermuda high re-establishes, we should warm back up (not as hot as now) for the weekend as indicated by the 850mb and down modeled temperature profile. As far as precipitation goes, today and tomorrow (Tuesday) look dry. On late-Tuesday night/Wednesday morning, we could see some showers along a N-to-S passing cold front. The passing ocean high should then keep New Jersey dry for late-Wednesday PM through early Friday morning despite potential onshore flow cloudiness. Friday into the weekend indicates no frontal passages or synoptic rain systems. However, we should be warm-sectored with convergence created from S/SW flow meeting the departing S/SE high pressure flow. The onshore convergence should prevent us from reaching the “too hot” feeling. I’m leaning towards warm and humid but with scattered showers and thunderstorms. Let’s see how guidance focuses in with live observations throughout this week.

Monday (June 12) high temperatures should easily reach into the low-to-mid 90s away from the ocean. Immediate coastal areas could hang in the 80s. Skies should be mostly sunny with a humid feel. Winds should be light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should hang in the upper-60s/lower-70s statewide.

Tuesday (June 13) high temperatures should reach the mid-90s, possibly a bit higher near the I-95 corridor. Immediate coastal regions should again be held in the 80s. Skies should be mostly sunny with a continued humid feel however pop-up thunderstorms cannot be ruled out, especially during afternoon/evening hours. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should fall into the 60s statewide as an approaching cold front is expected. Frontal precipitation is possible overnight.

Wednesday (June 14) high temperatures should reach into the 80s away from the ocean. Immediate coastal regions and about 10-15 miles inland could hang in the 70s given the switch to onshore flow. After any early rain moves out, skies should eventually be partly-to-mostly sunny with possibly some remnant humidity around. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the E/SE. Overnight lows should fall into the 50s statewide.

Thursday (June 15) high temperatures should just flirt with 80 around the interior SNJ/CNJ area. The rest of the state should hang in the 70s. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the SE. Overnight lows should fall into the upper-50s/lower-60s statewide.

Friday (June 16) high temperatures should reach into the 70s statewide. Skies should be mixed and unsettled (sunny periods but with chance of showers and thunderstorms). Winds should be light out of the S/SE. Overnight lows should fall into the lower-60s statewide as unsettled, possibly stormy, conditions persist overnight.

An early look at the weekend indicates a return to warmer temperatures but not too hot. Highs in the 80s lows in the 60s kind of stuff. The region should be somewhat unsettled so isolated-to-scattered showers and thunderstorms are currently expected. I’ll be able to expand on exact timing and impacts in the weekend outlook Thursday evening. Everyone have a great week and please be safe! JC

Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC