Discussion: Real quick, we saw a cold front come through yesterday that had very little effect on temperatures. In fact actual temperatures should now warm behind the cold front. Go figure! The biggest impact from the cold front passage is humidity reduction (lowering of dew points) and that will set the stage for a warm/hot but drier day today (Friday). From Saturday-forward the heat and humidity are on! The ridge will start to build and peak between Saturday night and Monday, maybe Tuesday. This should be the peak hottest and muggiest period of the stretch. Wednesday (July 4th) and into next weekend has some uncertainty as to when exactly the heat wave truly relaxes. We might be dealing with highs above 90 all the way into next weekend, just not has hot as the immediate Sunday-Tuesday period. Remember, it’s easier for actual temperatures to exceed 100 with drier air (lower dew points). Really high dew points inhibit actual temperatures but boost up the heat index. Sometimes upper-90s and dry feels cooler than lower-90s and humid for this very reason. Saturday night through Tuesday should feature the most humid and tropical-like air mass of this entire heat wave that could last for 5 days+. As far as rain and storms go, they are possible on any given day given the instability and sea breeze front trigger potential. Tuesday into Wednesday seems the most unsettled of all days however nothing that exciting is showing other than isolated pop-up cell activity.
HEAT SAFETY NOTE: Please use common sense. Stay hydrated and as cool as possible, don’t leave kids/pets in the car, check on elders/those who normally need assistance, know the difference between heat stroke vs heat exhaustion symptoms, etc.
Friday (June 29) high temperatures should easily reach into the 80s statewide. The urban corridor and surrounding areas have the best chance to break 90. Skies should be mostly sunny but not yet overly-muggy due to light W/NW winds. Overnight lows should range from lower-60s to lower-70s NNJ to SNJ.
Saturday (June 30) high temperatures should reach above 90 in most areas with the exception of the immediate coast (mid-to-upper 80s). The urban corridor and surrounding areas have the best chance to flirt with breaking 100 but such is not guaranteed. Regardless, heat indices will be high enough to be considered dangerous. Skies should be mostly sunny with noticeably increased humidity. Winds should be light out of the W which could inhibit the sea breeze from forming for the coast. Beach flies likely a problem! Overnight lows could stay above 70 for most areas with the exception of NNJ elevations (upper-60s).
Sunday (July 1) high temperatures should reach 90 or above for most areas, even the immediate coast. The urban corridor again has the best chance to break 100. Heat indices will likely reach above 100 and then some. Another dangerous situation re: hydration and staying cool. Skies should be mostly sunny but hazy with high levels of humidity. Winds should be light out of the SW which could allow a sea breeze to cool the immediate coast during afternoon hours. Pop-up showers and thunderstorms could result from the sea breeze front but are not guaranteed and would likely be widely-isolated. Overnight lows should again struggle to dip below 70 statewide.
An early look at next week indicates more of the same (hazy, hot and humid) for the first half of the week through July 4th. Next Thursday-forward and into the weekend still looks hot with highs capable of breaking 90 but not as hot as the immediate approaching period this weekend. Of all days next week, Tuesday and Wednesday appear the most unsettled. Therefore widely-isolated showers and thunderstorms would be possible for both of those days. All other days in the week appear drier. Let’s take a closer look on Sunday. Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC
Who’s coming to our mid-summer dinner music party for cancer assistance this Saturday, July 14?
Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™