Discussion: We’ve seen hotter heat waves than this. Regardless, the current heat and humidity are still into “dangerous” territory regarding hydration and keeping cool. It took a few days for the humidity to build over the weekend but it’s here now and should linger through most of Friday. At that point (Friday afternoon-evening) an approaching area of Canadian high pressure will push a cold front through all of NJ from NW to SE. This should produce a linear segment of rain and thunderstorms which should pave the way for a beautiful mid-summer weekend…cooler temps and lower humidity…but still summery. We can thank the tip of a trough swinging through SE Canada/NE US for this. While most of this week (until the Friday frontal passage) will be sunny, hazy, hot and humid, the caveat of showers and thunderstorms has to be made. This is a tropical air mass which typically features afternoon/evening downpours and boomers. Ask anyone from Florida and they will fill you in. Most should stay rain-free but some could get caught in such.
Monday (July 2) high temperatures should top out in the mid-to-upper 90s for most away from the ocean. Heat indices for these locations can easily exceed 100. Immediate coastal regions might hang in the mid-to-upper 80s, especially if a sea breeze front develops. Skies should be mostly sunny but humid and hazy. Winds should be light out of the S. Overnight lows should struggle to fall below 70 statewide.
Tuesday (July 3) high temperatures should top out in the mid-90s for most away from the ocean. Heat indices for these locations can easily exceed 100. Immediate coastal regions might hang in the mid-80s, possibly closer to 80 if a sea breeze front develops. Skies should remain mostly sunny, humid and hazy. Widely-isolated rogue showers and thunderstorms are possible but most should stay dry (from rain anyway). Winds should remain light out of the S. Overnight lows should again struggle to fall below 70 statewide.
Wednesday (July 4) high temperatures should reach near-90 for most with immediate coastal areas hanging closer to 80. Skies should be partly sunny with a humid feel. Widely-isolated rogue showers and thunderstorms are again possible given the tropical-like conditions. Winds should be light out of the SE (more conducive for sea breeze front development along the Atlantic beaches). Overnight lows should fall to near-70 statewide.
Thursday (July 5) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 80s for most. Some interior locations could break 90 while the immediate coast hangs closer to 80. Skies should remain hazy, hot and humid…mostly sunny but again with the caveat of a rogue shower or thunderstorm possible. Winds should be light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should again stay just above 70.
Friday (July 6) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 80s for most. Once again, some interior locations could break 90 while the immediate coast hangs closer to 80. Skies should start at least partly sunny but rain and thunderstorms are likely along the “PM hours” cold frontal passage. I’ll track this thunderstorm potential over the next few days as we closer approach. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should fall into the 60s for most.
An early look at the weekend indicates dry and sunny conditions…a relief from the heat and humidity! We’re talking highs in the upper-70s/lower-80 and lows in the upper-50s/lower-60s. Let’s revisit this idea in a few days. Everyone have a great week and please be safe! JC
Time is running out to purchase tickets to Fun(d) the Dream, a mid-summer music dinner charity fundraiser we’re throwing in Ocean County!
Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™