Discussion: The Bermuda high/W Atlantic ridge will flex yet again with a warm, humid and unsettled pattern returning as we speak. These last few days have featured lower humidity but you can already feel the tropical air mass returning tonight (10:30pm Sunday night). We’re looking at a hazy, hot and humid Monday-Thursday. I have no doubt there will be plenty of sunshine on each day. What I cannot tell you is where the specific sea breeze front-sparked or convergence zone-sparked shower/thunderstorm may form. You just have to know that it’s possible. The heat and humidity will take the headlines but do what you have to do to avoid getting caught in a pop-up thunderstorm. Starting Thursday night, a cold front will at least make it into NJ. The question is, how far S with it get? This gives NWNJ the best chance to see more dew points of joy but gives SNJ the best chance to stay warm and unsettled should the front not make it through. Then there’s the idea of the front itself producing lift across wherever it’s draped. These are the details that will lock-in midweek for the holiday weekend forecast. For now, it looks like cool/rainy transitions to warm/muggy/unsettled from Friday to Monday. The tropics are quiet but there’s less dust from the Sahara and warmer water in the Cape Verde formation zone. I’d watch any wave in Sept/Oct that departs W Africa into the trade winds. Let’s not let our guard down closer to the E US either. Sea surface temperature anomalies are warm everywhere off the US. The Bermuda high pattern is being very stubborn which is an undesirable anticyclonic steering mechanism for tropical cyclones approaching the SE US/Caribbean. I’d be glad to see that break down. Like seriously…any time now is fine.
Monday (Aug 27) high temperatures should reach well into the 80s for all of NJ. Most areas away from the ocean have a chance to break 90. Skies should be partly-to-mostly sunny with elevated humidity. Isolated showers/thunderstorms are not off the table. Winds should be light out of the W. Overnight lows should range from 70-75 NNJ to SNJ.
Tuesday (Aug 28) high temperatures should easily reach into the 80s again for all of NJ. Most areas away from the ocean have a chance to spike into the mid-90s, possibly higher. Skies should be partly-to-mostly sunny with elevated humidity. Isolated showers/thunderstorms are not off the table. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should range from 70-75 NNJ to SNJ.
Wednesday (Aug 29) high temperatures should reach well into the 80s for all of NJ. Most areas away from the ocean have a chance to spike into the mid-90s again. In fact, this might be the hottest day of the week. Skies should be partly-to-mostly sunny with elevated humidity. Isolated showers/thunderstorms are not off the table. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should range from 70-75 NNJ to SNJ.
Thursday (Aug 30) high temperatures should reach into the 90s again for many areas but temperatures should be a degree or two less than Wednesday. Skies should be mixed with showers and thunderstorms possible. Winds should be light out of the W. Overnight lows should range from lower-60s to lower-70s NNJ to SNJ as the anticipated cold front approaches NWNJ first.
Friday (Aug 31) high temperatures should reach the upper-70s/lower-80s for most. Skies should be mostly cloudy with a few sunny breaks. Scattered showers are likely. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the E/NE. Overnight lows should fall into the 60s statewide.
An early look at the holiday weekend indicates possibly another cooler day on Saturday (less chance of rain than Friday) followed by muggy and unsettled Saturday, Sunday and Monday. When I say unsettled I mean plenty of sunshine likely but with the chance for random pop-up showers and thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon/evening hours. Let’s take another look in a few days. Please take the heat and humidity seriously this week. Stay hydrated and cool when possible. Know the symptoms of heat stroke and heat exhaustion. Otherwise have a great week and please be safe! JC
Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™