Discussion: The highly anomalous E US ridge has peaked and is now slowly decaying. During this decay (this weekend), NJ should reach the hottest temperatures and highest humidity levels of this entire heat wave. Because of this, the National Weather Service has issued numerous heat and air quality advisories/alerts for this weekend. I know not everyone has the same luxury of seeking a cool environment, especially outdoor labor. My advice is to stay as cool and hydrated as your situation allows for. Temps will be in the 90s, possibly 100. Heat indices will be in excess of 100. Only isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible today (Friday) and Saturday, mainly during afternoon/evening hours. Sunday, however, carries a higher chance of PM thunderstorms due to another transient trough swinging through our area between Sunday and Tuesday. At the lower levels there will likely be a Sunday PM frontal boundary (cold front) that should help break the excessive heat and humidity for next week. I realize cold front is probably a laughable term/thought…but temps and humidity will at least lessen some. That frontal boundary however could feature severe thunderstorms Sunday PM more in the form of a linear segment rather than isolated pop-ups. I will report accordingly on the Sunday PM thunderstorms as we closer approach. Until Sunday, just keep an eye to the sky for any iso pop-ups. The most favored location would be along the coast during afternoon/early evening hours (sparked off any sea breeze fronts that form). After the Sunday PM storms, next week looks more seasonably average with highs in the mid-to-upper 80s/near-90 and only some humidity, not relentless humidity. Looking as far out as I am comfortable with, the humidity could break rather nice for next weekend. For this weekend, please use common sense regarding hydration and duration of outdoor activity.
Friday (June 21) high temperatures, as of 1pm, are over 90 for many away from the ocean. We’ll probably climb a few more degrees until about 3-4pm before we start falling into evening hours. Coastal areas are all in the 80s and could flirt with 90. Elevated humidity levels are making it feel even hotter (over 100). Skies are mostly sunny and winds should remain light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should struggle to dip below 70 for most areas.
Saturday (June 22) high temperatures should flirt with breaking 100 away from the ocean, especially interior CNJ/SNJ. Otherwise, 90s are good bet statewide with even the immediate coast approaching such (at least mid-to-upper 80s). Humidity should remain relentless. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds with isolated thunderstorms possible during afternoon-evening hours. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should only fall to the low-to-mid 70s statewide as isolated thunderstorm chances continue into early Sunday AM hours.
Sunday (June 23) high temperatures should again flirt with breaking 100 (at least mid-90s) away from the ocean with relentless humidity. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Thunderstorms are possible during PM hours which I’ll track and report accordingly in real-time Sunday. Winds should be light to breezy out of the SW. Overnight lows should again hover a few degrees on either side of 70. Thunderstorm chances should end midnight-ish.
An early look at next week indicates some moderation from the excessive heat and humidity though still summery. Highs in mid-to-upper 80s/near-90 with average to slightly above-average humidity. No widespread thunderstorm outbreaks are showing on the data however the everyday/anytime caveat for an isolated thunderstorm will remain in effect. Please stay as cool and hydrated as your situation allows for this weekend and please be safe! JC
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Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC