Discussion: Nothing has really changed for the next few days. We’ll be under the colder influence of the NW flow through Wednesday, generated by the departing trough/approaching ridge (NW winds for most levels under 250mb). Today’s the coldest day with tonight likely the coldest night of this stretch. Starting tomorrow, we should begin moderating into Wednesday as winds relax under high pressure.
Sometime between Wednesday afternoon and Thursday morning, the warm front should pass through from SW to NE. You might see some initial fog with it. Not sure if this will make Wednesday afternoon/evening more of a milder day or not. Depends on warm front timing. But it’s certainly possible.
Thursday will def be mild as NJ will be in the warm sector. Cloud coverage will determine just a mild day vs kinda soupy. The more sun that can get through, the soupier. But either way, a much milder day compared to current conditions. Winds are a more confident forecast for Thursday into Friday morning. We’ll have low pressure over the lakes and high pressure near Bermuda squeezing NJ between in a pressure gradient aligned for strong S/SW winds. Rain looks fairly confident but not any solid linear segments…more like clusters of rain. Low pressure could actually split back N into Canada leaving a secondary low over the Mid-Atlantic US. If this happens, the additional lifting from the secondary (S branch) low could produce some stormy and very windy scenarios at the surface. So the overall wind threat is out of the S/SW however isolated storm winds could vary in wind direction. Both are capable of wind gusts in the 40-60mph range). This is what I’m currently watching and will update daily on until real-time…Thursday PM/Friday AM storms and wind.
Friday into the weekend then looks mixed with sun and clouds but dry with highs in the mid-to-upper 50s and lows in the upper-30s/lower-40s. Looks like a few days of W flow. The first 10 days or so of April looks kind of cold. Transient periods of warmth between prolonged periods of cold. Might be mid-April until a sustainable mild pattern sets in.
In English: We’re cold and windy through tonight and tomorrow. Wednesday we start warming and become very mild for Thursday. Thunderstorms and gusty winds are likely Thursday PM then a dry and not too cold weekend. Be safe! JC
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Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™