Heat Wave Expected to Break (July 24-28)

Finally, some relief from the heat and humidity…

Discussion: An upper level shortwave will miss a connection with the northern stream. It will instead break off over our region as a temporary cut-off low aloft for the first half of this week. The biggest impact this will have for New Jersey is a reduction in temperatures and dew points.  A frontal boundary remains draped laterally across the coastal Mid-Atlantic US however. Surface low pressure centers continue to traverse such from W to E hence the unsettled stormy pattern we’ve been in. It looks like a more robust circulation of low pressure will move through NJ late Sunday night into Monday morning (tonight).  We’re probably talking about .5″ to 1.5″ of total rainfall when all is said and done Monday morning. We should then remain unsettled through Tuesday but Wednesday through at least Friday looks pretty good as high pressure establishes. The main driver that will push the frontal boundary to our S is the Sunday night-Monday morning low in its wake (W side of cyclonic flow). Therefore at least the first half of this upcoming Monday-Friday should have a more pleasant feel after the temperatures and humidity as of late. Warmer temperatures and elevated humidity should then gradually return Thursday into the weekend but not be as intense as this past last week.  

Overnight (Sunday night) looks wet and breezy as a weak but organized low pressure system passes through from W/SW to E/NE. Moderate-to-heavy rainfall is expected with thunderstorms embedded within. We should be looking at .5″ to 1.5″ statewide by the time everything clears Monday morning. That’s enough to trigger flash flooding in areas of poor drainage given the short duration so please pay attention to NWS advisories for such. Temps should struggle to fall below the low-70s for most. NNJ elevations will likely drop into the 60s.

Monday (July 24) high temperatures should reach into the 80s for most. NNJ elevations might be held in the upper-70s while the SNJ coast get closer to 90. After the morning rainy system clears out, skies should be partly-to-mostly cloudy with a humid feel (especially for SNJ). Winds should be light out of the N/NE. Overnight lows should fall into the 60s for most with coastal areas hanging in the lower-70s.

Tuesday (July 25) high temperatures should top out in the 70s for most. Only SNJ/SENJ might break 80. Skies should be partly-to-mostly sunny with a pleasant feel. Only a micro chance of an isolated shower. Winds should be light out of the N/NE. Overnight lows should fall into the 60s for most with coastal regions likely hanging around 70.

Wednesday (July 26) high temperatures could cap out in the mid-to-upper 70s statewide. Interior CNJ/SNJ could flirt with breaking 80. Skies should be partly-to-mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the E/SE. Overnight lows should fall into the 60s for most. Coastal regions could hang around 70.

Thursday (July 27) high temperatures should reach into the 80s statewide. Skies should be partly cloudy with afternoon rain and thunderstorms possible. Winds should be light to breezy out of the S. Overnight lows should have trouble falling below 70 statewide aside from NNJ elevations where upper-60s are possible.

Friday (July 28) high temperatures should reach into the 80s again statewide. Skies should feature a mixed bag of sun and clouds with afternoon rain and thunderstorms possible. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should fall into the 60s away from the ocean while the immediate coast hangs in the low-70s.

An early look at the weekend indicates more highs in the 80s with lows in the upper-60s/lower-70s. Unfortunately more humidity and thunderstorm chances would likely accompany such. Let’s revisit on Thursday for the Weekend Outlook. Everyone have a great week and please be safe! JC

Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™