Discussion: A very thin and progressive upper-level trough is moving through today (Friday) in the wake of the departing Thursday PM convergent-driven rainfall. This will keep conditions cloudy and unsettled for Friday while the upper-jet is still wrapped around the trough. Once that pushes E, a ridge will build for NJ. High pressure will anchor over Bermuda and kick SW return flow into NJ from the SW. The upper-jet will stay way to the N and allow NJ to bake in hot and humid air mass. Tomorrow (Saturday) will be the start of it (some spots might break 90) but the hottest days should be Sunday-Wednesday. We’re talking highs above 90F and dew points in the 65-70 range. This should push heat indices (real-feel) close to or above 100F. So please stay as cool as possible and hydrate when you can. Coastal regions of CNJ and SNJ will likely see lower daytime high temperatures, especially once the sea breeze kicks in (and it will with interior hot rising air mass pulling it in)…likely by early afternoon. No showers or thunderstorms are expected in general (for Saturday or Sunday) but you can never rule out an isolated pop-up if either the cap breaks or the sea breeze front shovels hard enough into the destabilized air mass away from the ocean. A low probability this weekend but good to know. If you see cumulus clouds build in the afternoon to the point of white seagulls appearing very bright against their darker underside, this is a good indication that it’s happening. Otherwise, enjoy the most probable outcome which is a hot and clear weekend with stunted baby cumulous forming along the edge of the sea breeze front!
Friday (June 4) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 70s for most areas. Maybe closer to 80 for WNJ. Skies should remain mostly cloudy with isolated-to-scattered showers and thunderstorms possible. Winds should be light out of the S/SW in general. Obviously more windy of local to a thunderstorm or downpour. Overnight lows should range from upper-50s to mid-60s from elevations to coasts.
Saturday (June 5) high temperatures should just reach or break 90 for most areas. Closer to 80 for coastal regions. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should stay above 60 statewide.
Sunday (June 6) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 90s for most areas. Coastal regions closer to 80, maybe even upper-70s. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should hang in the mid-to-upper 60s for most areas.
An early look at next week indicates hot conditions lasting through Wednesday. A frontal passage (I would assume rainy possibly stormy) should then push through in the Wednesday PM-Thursday AM period and take temps back down to just warm (not hot) for Thursday-Friday. Everyone have a great weekend. Please stay as cool and hydrated as possible and be safe! JC
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Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™