Discussion: W/SW upper-level flow continues to tap a very hot air mass in the C US with periodic injections of humid air mass from the Gulf of Mexico. The flow is supported by general Bermuda high circulation. This has New Jersey in a very hot and humid weather pattern which should temporarily break Tuesday with passage of a cold front at the surface and some lower heights dropping in aloft. This won’t provide a magical crisp feel behind the cold front but rather just less hot with manageable humidity through the rest of next week. No widespread rain systems are expected. Therefore the current developing drought can only be relieved by frontal storm activity. And with that being so hit-or-miss lately, it does not look promising at least to close out July. Otherwise the main focus this weekend is for health concerns pertaining to the high actual temperatures and elevated humidity producing dangerous heat indices. Please stay as cool and hydrated as your situation possibly allows. The NWS is putting out all sorts of advisories for air quality alerts and heat-related health concerns for dehydration, heat stroke, etc. They are doing it for a reason. This weekend will likely be the hottest point of the year.
Friday (July 22) high temperatures should reach into the 90s for most areas less elevations and coastal regions. Not as relentless as Thursday’s feel but still hot and humid. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Afternoon-evening isolated pop-ups are possible. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should range from mid-60s to mid-70s from elevations to coasts.
Saturday (July 23) high temperatures should reach well into the 90s for most areas. Coastal areas should even reach 90 while the interior could reach 100. Skies should be mostly sunny outside of an isolated pop-up (low non-zero chance). Humidity will not be horrible but won’t matter with actual temps so hot. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should stay above 70 for most areas.
Sunday (July 24) high temperatures should reach well into the 90s again with a good shot of 100 away from the ocean. Skies should mainly be mixed with haze, sun, and clouds. Super small pop-up chance. Humidity should be higher than Saturday. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should stay above 70 statewide and possibly above 80 for interior CNJ/SNJ.
An early look at next week indicates the really hot stuff lasting through Monday with a break starting Tuesday. Tuesday through next weekend looks like highs in the mid-to-upper 80s (maybe some break 90) with lesser humidity. So, many should “just” break out of the heatwave Tuesday while some keep it going…hot but not as dangerous health-wise as this weekend. This weekend is very dangerous health-wise so please stay as cool and hydrated as your situation possibly allows. No widespread rainfall is currently showing which continues the drought concern. Be safe! JC
Premium Services
KABOOM Club offers inside info forecast discussion, your questions answered, and early storm impact maps (ahead of the public). At a buck per month, it’s an extremely feasible way to show support.
My Pocket Meteorologist (MPM), in partnership with EPAWA Weather Consulting, offers professional/commercial interests, whose businesses depend on outdoor weather conditions (snow plowing, landscaping, construction, etc.), with hyper-local text message alerts/forecasts and access to the MPM premium forum—the most comprehensive and technical forecast discussion available for PA and NJ.
Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™