Hazy but Not Hot and Humid

Discussion: There’s not much to talk about before this weekend. Monday-Wednesday looks mild and sunny with temps in the 70s however we’ll deal with hazy skies from the upstream forest fires. Thursday and Friday look cooler after a mostly dry front passes through late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. If anyone will see some rain from that front, it will be NNJ for a few hours overnight. All eyes are on this weekend as outdoor interests are high. A very progressive trough will swing through New England while upper-level energy meanders over/just offshore of SE US. If these energy pieces connect then it establishes a path for a weak coastal storm to bring multiple days of rain to NJ. If these pieces of energy can stay separated, then ridging will work it’s way in and keep the SE US energy to the S and E of NJ for the entire weekend. Models have been incredibly inconsistent in handling this but the last few runs have been positive for NJ (rain misses S and/or E). We have our own BBQ happening Saturday so like most of you, I’m paying very close attention. We will not be making the go/no-go call until either Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. So unfortunately, I cannot provide a Memorial Day Weekend forecast until then. It’s one of those annoying “hurry up and wait” things. But I am following and will have a fully detailed MDW outlook out by Wednesday afternoon.

Monday (May 22) high temperatures should reach into the 70s for all NJ areas. Areas away from the ocean have the best chance to break 80. Skies should be mostly sunny but some haze around from the forest fire upstream. Can’t rule out an afternoon shower or pop-up t-storm. Winds should be light out of the NE away from the ocean but breezy along the coast. Overnight lows should range from upper-40s to mid-50s from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

Tuesday (May 23) high temperatures should reach into the 70s away from the ocean but likely hang in the 60s along the coast. Expect more hazy sunshine from the forest fires upstream. Winds should be lighter out of the E/NE away from the ocean but breezy, even gusty at times, along the coast. Overnight lows should range from 45-55 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

Wednesday (May 24) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 70s away from the ocean but likely hang in the upper-60s along the coast. Skies should be mixed with more sun than clouds. Winds should be light out of the E. Overnight lows should range from upper-40s to mid-50s from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

Thursday (May 25) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 60s for most NJ areas…slightly cooler than the prior few days but still nice, especially under the mostly sunny skies. Winds should be light out of the N/NE. Overnight lows should fall to the upper-40s/lower-50s range for most areas however NNJ elevations could drop closer to 40.

Friday (May 26) high temperatures should stay in the mid-to-upper 60s again like Thursday. Skies should be mixed with more sun and clouds. Winds should be light out of the E/NE. Overnight lows should range from upper-40s to mid-50s from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

An early look at the weekend indicates the onshore flow pattern continuing. Temperatures are about the only forecast of confidence at this point. It looks like more mid-to-upper 60s (maybe just into 70s) Saturday and Sunday. Monday looks warmer with most of NJ into mid-70s. It’s probably a good expectation for a mixed bag of sun and clouds with the onshore flow. The rain forecast however is very uncertain as models are struggling to handle the energy over the SE US and just offshore. I know many are invested in outdoor plans for Memorial Day Weekend. Trust me, I’m right there with you. But We’re going to give it until Wednesday morning to make the call on our Saturday BBQ. With that said, I’ll likely issue the full Memorial Day Weekend outlook on Wednesday. Until then, I’ll be following the guidance for either a coastal hit from a weak low or an out-to-sea miss. If it hits, it looks like a multiple day event that could wipe out the weekend. If it stays offshore then all outdoor planners will rejoice. More on Wednesday. Have a great week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC