Discussion: The upper jet should remain to the N of NJ this week as slightly above-average positive 500mb height anomalies persist over the Mid-Atlantic US. This should keep the surface hot with fluctuations of humidity intensity. The two strongest fluctuations in humidity should occur today and Thursday with Tuesday (tomorrow) seeing a slight reduction. Not total relief but after these last few days it should feel welcomed. Any day this week will still feel very summery with warm-to-hot temps and isolated pop-up showers and thunderstorm chances. Showers and t-storms generally happen from afternoon into evening hours after prolonged daytime diurnal surface heating. They like to pop on/along aggressive sea breeze fronts but are completely random. The next notable event is the tip of a progressive and positive-axis trough swinging through for the weekend. This should take our humidity down for at least NNJ and CNJ. SNJ sometimes tends to hang onto humidity if the cold front hangs up before clearing the coast. We’ll see. But either way high pressure looks to control the weekend so not much rain.
Note: Unless specifically mentioned by location (Example: NNJ elevations, SENJ immediate coast, Interior CNJ/SNJ, etc.) assume the following forecasts are statewide for New Jersey. Directions are shortened (N = North, S = South, W/SW = West/SouthWest, etc.).
Monday (July 20) high temperatures should reach into the 90s. Areas away from the ocean should get the closest to 100. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Humidity should remain excessive. Winds should be light out of the W in general prior to any sea breeze front formation. Can never rule out isolated pop-ups in an environment like this. Overnight lows should range from mid-60s to mid-70s from elevations to sea.
Tuesday (July 21) high temperatures should reach near-90 for most areas. Interior CNJ/SNJ might run higher in the 90s. Humidity should be less than Monday but not totally gone, especially for SNJ. Skies should be mixed with isolated pop-ups possible. Winds should light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from mid-60s to mid-70s from elevations to sea.
Wednesday (July 22) high temperatures should reach near-90 for most areas. Skies should be mixed with sun, clouds and a few showers/thunderstorms around. Humidity should be noticeably re-elevated after the small drop Tuesday. Winds should be light out of the S/SE. This could make SENJ cooler than the rest of the state. Overnight lows should fail to dip below the 70s.
Thursday (July 23) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 90s. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds early but thunderstorms are possible during PM hours, possibly strong or severe. Winds should be light out of the SW in general (unless under a thunderstorm). Overnight lows should range from mid-60s to mid-70s from elevations to sea.
Friday (July 24) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 80s for most areas. This seems like the kind of day where NNJ will be cooler and less humid than SNJ (where humidity tends to hang). Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from lower-60s to lower-70s from elevations to sea.
An early look at the weekend indicates sunny and dry conditions with humidity possibly taking a small break until next week. Something to look forward to as we come out of the oven this week. Stay as cool and hydrated as possible and please be safe! JC
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Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™