Great Weekend. But Things are Changing.

Discussion: This past Sunday, I began discussing a synoptic storm signal for premium Kaboom Club members. Now that it’s gaining traction, we can discuss it a little more in-detail. Let’s get the boring stuff out of the way first which is this weekend through about next Wednesday. This period looks seasonably cool, clear, and dry but breezy at times…an unfortunate environment for fire risk/spread after the recent lack of significant rainfall. There are red flag warnings issued and severe/extreme droughts happening so please use common sense re: fire safety. We can thank the decaying ridging for these conditions…keeping it kind of mild but no more 70s, rather closer to 60. Don’t get me wrong, this weekend looks beautiful for mid-to-late fall. Any outdoor activities, events, and plans will be a win. It’s just…continuing to be horrible for fire risk.

Ok, back to things more exciting. By Thursday, Nov 21, the E US ridging pattern will break and allow a trough to set up with a ridge in the W US. This will change the E US in ways we haven’t seen for a long time. It actually brings the possibility of snow to the table. IMO we are too far away to discuss specific surface solutions. But basic meteorological theory would suggest “something” happening on the front-side of the trough over the Mid-Atlantic US. It looks good in the upper-levels but the surface model solutions are still spraying multiple solutions…and they will continue to. The way it is right now, it would be a lakes-cutting low that sends a slug of rain through NJ on Thursday, possibly ending as snow NW of I-95 Friday morning into the weekend. The low wants to meander/linger over the NE US which would put NJ under cold W/NW winds for the remainder of Friday through Sunday. These W/NW winds would be allowed to blow over the Great Lakes (not frozen yet) towards New Jersey. So, my gut feel says that if we’re to see snow this early (Nov 21-23), it would be from lake-effect streamers (flurries/flizzards/squalls) occurring after the main part of precip falls as rain first. IMO, lake-effect streamers are a better chance for snow this time of year than a bulls-eye synoptic hit. Again, this is going to change a lot in the next few days (timing and precip type)…but something is going to happen, even if just a slug of much needed rain in that Nov 21-23 period. I’ll be watching closely and reporting accordingly but let’s keep snow expectations holstered until it becomes more probable of an outcome. Right now, snow potential is very low but non-zero. This pattern-breaker, however, would likely kick-off a period of below average temperatures to finish November (through Thanksgiving). One final note: The tropics are dead for the season.

Friday (Nov 15) high temperatures broke 60 in a few spots today but most of NJ hung in the 55-60 range at the warmest part of the day. Clear skies, breezy NW winds, and very low humidity are keeping the fire spread risk elevated, especially with the far-below average precipitation lately. Overnight lows should fall into the 30s for most areas with immediate coasties hanging in the 40-45 range. Expect breezy winds to sustain into Saturday.

Saturday (Nov 16) high temperatures should reach near-60 again for most NJ locations. Skies should be mostly sunny with a very dry feel. Winds should be breezy-to-gusty out of the NW (am hours) N/NW (pm hours). Winds should relax a little after sunset but still remain breezy. Again, a triple fire threat throughout the day (lack of rain, low humidity, and windy). Overnight lows should fall back to the 30s for most with coasties just above 40.

Sunday (Nov 17) high temperatures should reach near-60 again with a mixed bag of sun and clouds. Winds should remain breezy out of the NW. The fire risk isn’t going away. Overnight lows should range from 35-45 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

An early look at next week (Nov 18-22) indicates Monday likely the warmest day of the week with highs just breaking 60. Looks like highs in the 50s after that. The Nov 21-23 synoptic storm signal remains in place. Should at least mean some rainfall for NJ. See above discussion. Otherwise have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC