Great Start. Unsettled Finish (May 25-28)

Discussion: The high pressure responsible for the spectacular weather today and tomorrow (Friday) will slide out into the ocean by Saturday. This will generate return flow which should pump higher humidity into the equation for Saturday. For this reason, all the ingredients for widely-isolated showers and air mass thunderstorms are on the table Saturday. It’s the kind of thing where most luck out with a summery day of sunshine while a few get hit by a rogue shower or thunderstorm. Sunday looks like the wettest day of the weekend. Monday looks better than Sunday but still not out of the woods for widely-scattered rain showers with a few embedded boomers. The general theme of the weekend: Starts warm and dry, becomes warm and humid with possible storms, ends cool, cloudy and wet. The tropical impact to the SW US will likely stay to our S aside from some energy that could break off and ride up the front and enhance the Sunday-Monday rain chances. To clarify, Saturday and Monday are not all day washouts but should feature some periods of rain. Even with Sunday likely the wettest day of the weekend, some areas might luck out.

Friday (May 25) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 70s along the immediate coast. Areas away from the ocean should easily reach into the mid-80s with a shot at breaking 90 in SWNJ/WCNJ. Skies should be mostly sunny with increasing humidity. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should fall into the 60s statewide.

Saturday (May 26) high temperatures should reach the 80s for most, even some coastal locations. 90 is again not off the table, especially for SWNJ/WCNJ. Skies should be partly-to-mostly sunny for most with widely-isolated showers and thunderstorms possible. Most will luck out. Some will not. Afternoon/evening hours are favored over morning hours for such isolated activity. Humidity should be noticeably increased. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should fall into the mid-to-upper 60s statewide.

Sunday (May 27) high temperatures should break into the 70s for most of WNJ. ENJ should be cooler depending on the level of marine influence. Skies should be partly sunny with scattered rain showers and a boomer or two around. A backdoor cold front is in play for Sunday. This means cool air invading from the NW. Therefore NWNJ is much more affected by such than SWNJ. We’ll have to play it by ear how far the front advances to the SW. Overnight lows should range from mid-50s to mid-60s NNJ to SNJ.

Monday (May 28 – Memorial Day) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 70s for most. Skies should be partly-to-mostly cloudy with widely-scattered rain showers. A few embedded boomers cannot be ruled out. Winds should be light out of the S/SE. Overnight lows should range from 60-65 NNJ to SNJ.

An early look at next week indicates a warm and sunny start flipping midweek to cooler and cloudy heading into the weekend. Let’s take another look on Sunday evening. Everyone have a great holiday weekend and please be safe! JC

Who’s coming to our music dinner charity party this year?

Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™