Discussion: This week looks straightforward. High pressure will be passing through/overhead from Monday-Thursday. This will produce clear skies, milder-feeling afternoons, and cold nights. Mon-Tues colder than Wed-Thurs. The setup looks ideal for anyone traveling Mon-Thurs and will be a nice moderation in temperature after the colder recent days. I’m personally happy about this because it should produce ideal outdoor turkey cooking conditions. I’m brining, injecting, and smoking mine! But anyway…great weather for Thanksgiving. Not brutally cold. Not grossly mild. Perfect for the NYC parade. The Friday-Saturday synoptic storm signal has been looming for a while now. It currently looks like another coastal system interacting with a frontal system. This could mean anything from an unorganized widespread light rain (where the GFS is leaning) to a more organized rainstorm with embedded thunderstorms (where the Euro is leaning). The GFS holds it back and makes it more of a Sunday night into Monday event due to a stronger ridge influence over the upper low. The Euro is Friday into Saturday due to a much weaker ridge just ahead/N of it. So there is still decent uncertainty as to how much the upper-level components interact and affect timing. In either case, the E US trough and W US ridge both have a positive axis through Saturday for NJ interests. This means a faster moving system with the low tracking to the W and N of NJ or maybe closer to over NJ (keeping us in the milder rainy side). If a stronger low does push through, we should assume colder air returning for Saturday night into next week. A weaker low would likely mean a more moderated pattern following the signal. I’ll be watching this in the next few days and will report accordingly.
Monday (Nov 21) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 40s for most. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be breezy out of the SW. Overnight lows should fall into the 20s for most areas with the exception of immediate SNJ coasts hanging in the 30s.
Tuesday (Nov 22) high temperatures should reach the upper-40s/lower-50s. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the W. Overnight lows should be similar to Monday night…20s for most. 30s for coasts.
Wednesday (Nov 23) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 50s. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should remain light out of the W. Overnight lows should range from mid-20s to near-40 from elevations to coasts.
Thursday (Nov 24) high temperatures should reach the mid-50s again. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light out of the SE. Overnight lows should range from lower-30s to lower-40s from elevations to coasts.
Friday (Nov 25) high temperatures should reach the mid-50s. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds with rain possible (watching weekend signal). Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the SW. Overnight lows should hover in the lower-40s.
An early look at the weekend indicates whatever the storm signal is going to do. If earlier in the weekend then we should see some cold return behind it for Saturday-Sunday. If later in the weekend then things stay mild until rain arrives Sunday night. I’ll update this week accordingly. Otherwise, have a great Thanksgiving week and please be safe! JC
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Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™