Gradually Returning to Warm and Humid

Discussion: Yesterday (Thursday) went about as expected. Some relief from humidity moved into NJ, mainly for areas along and NW of I-95/NJTP. Areas SE of I-95/NJTP, especially the ECNJ/SENJ coast, saw lingering humidity due to proximity to the departing frontal boundary and the moisture-reinforcing sea breeze front that made it about 15-20 miles inland. Today (Friday) is a comfortable feel for all of NJ including coastal areas. It’s not a dry and crisp fall day (it IS the middle of summer), but dew points are a few degrees on either side of 60 with highs trapped in the 75-85 range. I’ll take it.

This weekend looks gradually transitional. Today (Friday) is the “aces” day of the weekend with low dew points and “not so bad” high temps. Tonight (Friday night) should be an amazing mid-summer night. Saturday looks great too but you will likely feel the humidity beginning to build again along with a few degrees warmer temps than Friday. Sunday should then be the warmest and most humid day of the weekend but still mostly ok rain-wise. While no rain systems are anticipated, we can’t rule out an isolated shower or thunderstorms Saturday or Sunday. Sunday would have the better chance than Saturday. The next 7 days in general look rather ordinary for middle-of-summer. There’s nothing jumping out at me at 250mb jet analysis or 500mb geopotential height analysis that would indicate synoptic storm development. I do see rain and storms next week but mostly surrounding the convergence off the NW side of Bermuda high colliding with a light upper-level W/NW flow from progressive troughing—not enough to push a frontal boundary through to the S/E of NJ. So, we should be caught in the warmer, more humid, middle which seems to paint Tuesday-Wednesday as the rainiest days with isolated activity possible afterward into next weekend.

Friday (July 19) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 80s for most NJ locations away from the ocean. Coastal regions likely mid-to-upper 70s. Skies should be mixed with more sun than clouds with a more comfortable feel due to lower humidity. Winds should remain light out of the NW away from the ocean and light out of the E/NE (off the ocean) for coastal areas. Overnight lows should range from mid-50s to mid-60s from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

Saturday (July 20) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 80s for most NJ locations. Coastal regions closer to 80. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Cannot rule out an extremely isolated/localized shower or two. Humidity should gradually increase throughout the day. Winds should be light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should range from 60-70 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

Sunday (July 21) high temperatures should approach 90 for many away from the ocean. Coastal regions closer to 80. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Showers and thunderstorms are possible, especially afternoon/evening hours. Humidity will continue to build from Saturday, especially for SNJ and coastal regions. Winds should be very light in any direction. Overnight lows should range from 60-70 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

An early look at next week indicates highs in the 80s and lows in the 65-70 range. Warm and humid but not dangerously hot and oppressively humid like earlier this week. Tues-Wed looks the rainiest with isolated showers then possible Thurs into the weekend. Let’s take a closer look in a few days. Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™