Gorgeous Conditions. Sunday PM Caveat.

Discussion: 250mb wind analysis indicates loose upper jets across the country which I would call inconclusive for NJ prognostication. Stepping down to 500mb heights, a weak ridge is forming over the Great Lakes while NJ sees the backside of a departing progressive trough. This is forming the N/NW flow out of Canada and responsible for delivering the current amazing feeling air mass. Flow will slowly rock from N to NW to W to SW over the weekend as the ridge flattens behind the trough. Stepping further down into the lower-levels, a weak but broad area of high pressure will push from W to E across the E US over the weekend. Right now we’re on the majestic front-side of the high (N flow). Tomorrow (Saturday) we’ll be under the high with tranquil flow in either direction but likely light out of W/NW. This will allow for a warmer day with a slight build in humidity. Then Sunday we’re on the back-side of the high with SW flow returning. This will at least saturate the sky with clouds by Sunday afternoon but the latest data trends are holding the rain off until later Sunday night…meaning outdoor activities are still likely ok during Sunday daytime hours. All bets off for sunset-forward into Monday morning before the amazing conditions reload for next week. But for this weekend, today (Friday) will be the most pleasant and refreshing day. Tomorrow (Saturday) will be slightly warmer with less of a pleasant feel and more of a summery feel. Both today and Saturday should feature clear skies and ample sunshine. Sunday still nice but clouds build with nuisance rain showers possible later in the PM hours.

Friday (May 31) high temperatures should reach into the 70s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mostly sunny with a pleasant feel (lower humidity). Winds should be light out of the N/NW. Overnight lows should range from upper-40s to near-60 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

Saturday (June 1) high temperatures should reach just over 80 for most areas away from the ocean. Coastal areas should hang in the mid-to-upper 70s. Skies should be mostly sunny with a small uptick in returning humidity. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from 50-60 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

Sunday (June 2) high temperatures should again reach just over 80 for most areas away from the ocean with coastal areas hanging in the mid-to-upper 70s. Skies should start with a mix of more sun than clouds but transition to a cloudier sky/humid feel by afternoon with showers eventually working in. I’m starting to think the showers hold off until sunset or even after based on the latest data trends. That would allow another nicer day outside through Sunday daylight hours despite the increased clouds. So, clouds are much more probable than rain prior to ~8pm. I wouldn’t cancel that mid-day BBQ IMO. And the rain that does fall between later Sunday night and Monday morning looks like weak sauce (nuisance at best). Winds should be light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should range from upper-50s to mid-60s from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

An early look at next week indicates more ideal conditions after the Sunday PM rain clears out by Monday morning…though maybe a few degrees warmer than how this Saturday will be. Thursday into Friday looks a bit unsettled but that would lead to another great weekend. Let’s take another look in a few days. Everyone enjoy the great conditions through at least late-Sunday morning and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC