Discussion: A weak positive-tilted trough will swing through the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic US this weekend. This should cut the upper-level ridge in half and allow normal 500mb height anomalies for New Jersey in that period. At the surface this is reflected by high pressure pushing a cold front through New Jersey on Friday—leading to a glorious weekend of lower summery temperatures and humidity. The cold frontal passage on Friday isn’t screaming severe outbreak to me but I could certainly see isolated-to-scattered instances of severe-warned thunderstorm criteria. This should push through NJ from NW to SE from late-morning through early-evening hours. Saturday and Sunday are then both golden for outdoor plans. Next week we should return to very warm temperatures as another ridge builds. This should take us into next weekend.
Friday (July 6) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 80s for most. Skies should be partly-to-mostly cloudy with late-morning/afternoon rain and thunderstorms possible. Most of NJ should clear by afternoon but SENJ could possibly hold onto rain into early-evening hours. Winds should be light out of the W but transition to the N by evening. Overnight lows should fall into the 60s for most and possibly even the 50s for NNJ elevations. This should feel amazing with lower dew points (lower humidity).
Saturday (July 7) high temperatures should reach the upper-70s/lower-80s statewide. Skies should be mostly sunny with a pleasant feel. Winds should be light out of the NE for most, maybe a bit breezier closer to the ocean. Overnight lows should range from mid-50s to mid-60s NNJ to SNJ.
Sunday (July 8) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 80s for most. Skies should remain mostly sunny with a pleasant feel. Winds should be light out of the NE. Overnight lows should range from mid-50s to mid-60s NNJ to SNJ.
An early look at next week indicates returning heat by mid-week that should last into next weekend. It looks like we’ve shaken the rainy pattern for now.
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Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™