Discussion: This week we’ll have fairly quiet conditions which is good news for travel-related interests (through Friday at least) but not so great for those looking for a White Christmas. Today we’re still cold in the wake of the weekend cold front. Tuesday-Wednesday we have two waves phasing which should produce snow in New England. The phase is too late for NJ to see a wintry system. SENJ maybe more of NJ could be grazed by the southern stream system (as a coastal low) before it combines with the northern energy for New England. This would be late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. The most probable p-type is rain but some wintry mix could occur without accumulation. As this system wraps up and pulls away, it will draw cold I behind it from the N. This should make for a cold and dry Wednesday night through most of Thursday. I’ve been seeing a clipper system evolve for Friday (Christmas Eve) but it looks divided NNJ/SNJ snow/rain for anything that does fall. I’ll continue to monitor this over the next few days but for now it looks marginal (temp-wise) and weak. We’ll then see a warm front Saturday and cold front Sunday. Late Friday night into Saturday morning could see some wintry p-type along the front of the warm front which could light snow to NWNJ. But temperatures will then warm for a mild and wet Christmas day before dropping with the cold front for Sunday. While I do not see any large snow systems beyond this weekend, the pattern change, towards cold/snow, is still expected to occur by the start of January (MJO/ENSO analysis).
Monday (Dec 20) high temperatures should struggle to escape the 30s for many areas. Maybe lower-40s for CNJ/SNJ. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should range from near-20 to near-30 from N to S.
Tuesday (Dec 21) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 40s. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light out of the N/NW. Overnight lows should range from mid-20s to near-40 from N to S. Watching SENJ for possible scraping of coastal low (likely rain but possibly some mixed precipitation without accumulation).
Wednesday (Dec 22) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 40s for most areas, and probably early in the morning. Skies should start mostly cloudy but give way to clearing skies. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should fall into 20s for most areas.
Thursday (Dec 23) high temperatures should struggle to escape the 30s for most areas. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should remain light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should fall into the upper-20s/lower-30s for most with increasing clouds.
Friday (Dec 24) high temperatures should reach the mid-40s for most areas. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Watching a weak clipper/leading edge system which could delivery possible flurries/light snow before rain takes over. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should range from mid-30s to mid-40s from N to S.
An early look at the weekend indicates a possibly mild and wet Saturday (Christmas Day) followed by a colder Sunday. Let’s take another look in a few days, especially with how volatile the pattern is. Everyone have a great week and please be safe! JC
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Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™