Discussion: Nothing much to talk about in the upper levels. Nothing locking in..more of a transient intermittent frequency of near-average geopotential heights. The main drivers of the current pattern are the Bermuda high and low pressure N of the Great Lakes. This creates S/SW flow for NJ and brings in elevated levels of humidity to make it feel hotter than it really is. We still don’t have any record heat waves showing on guidance (100+ actual temps). But 85-90 with dews above 70 will make it feel as if it was close to 100. With all of that said, expect conditions similar to Florida… Hazy, hot, and humid days with a mixed bag of sun, clouds, and afternoon-evening showers/thunderstorms. This should be the generally expected condition through this weekend into next week. Any day can feature a shower or thunderstorm even after a sunny blue sky morning. I’m thinking more clouds than sun are possible for the weekend. But where the sun does poke through, it will feel unbearably tropical. Thank goodness our highs are only 85-90 and not 95-100. With this humidity profile, 95-100 would be downright hazardous to health.
Friday (July 14) high temperatures, as of 4pm today – Friday, are maxing in the 80s. Some locations might have tapped 90 before clouds increased. But with dew points in excess of 70 statewide, it feels like swampy mid-90s. Skies should remain mostly cloudy with isolated showers and thunderstorms likely. Winds are light out of the S. Overnight lows should fall to near-70 for most New Jersey locations.
Saturday (July 15) high temperatures should reach close to 90 for most New Jersey locations away from the ocean. Coastal areas should stay in the 80s. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds with a humid feel. Isolated showers and thunderstorms could build for afternoon/evening hours. Winds should be light out of the S. Overnight lows should stay in the 70s statewide. A warm summer night.
Sunday (July 16) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 80s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds with a humid feel. Once again, isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible mainly during afternoon-evening hours. Winds should be light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should range from mid-60s to lower-70s from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.
An early look at next week indicates more of the same. Mostly 80s, some 90s away from the ocean, with a mixed bag of sun, clouds, and showers/thunderstorms. Most of the day sunny (morning through afternoons) then storm chances increase for afternoon-evening hours. I expect the elevated humidity to carry through this weekend and next week. Let’s revisit in a few days. Otherwise, everyone please stay as cool and hydrated as your situation allows and have a great weekend. Be safe! JC
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Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™