Firework Show and BBQ Forecast

Discussion: The purpose of this article is to leave you with a more detailed look at NJ weather conditions for the 4^th of July and this weekend. Any updates after this article, over the extended holiday period (tomorrow through Sunday), will be brief and mainly nowcasting situations.

Today (Wed July 3) is a little warmer than yesterday as the cooler and less humid air mass is slow to erode. I’m still seeing comfortable dews statewide as well as temps ranging from upper-70s to lower-80s. Humidity, however, is starting to work its way in and should continue to build overnight. There’s no chance for rain tonight and most of NJ should expect another delightful evening/overnight.

Thursday (July 4) should see a more humid situation as dew points climb back into the near-70/lower-70s range. That will make it feel a lot hotter than it will be (mostly mid-to-upper 80s across NJ). It should feel like 90+ for many. My best guess from the data is that any isolated rain showers or thunderstorms hold off until early-evening. This gives most daytime outdoor activities some peace of mind but presents a threat for firework showtimes. With that said, I do believe that there will be isolated-to-scattered showers and thunderstorms around after 7pm tomorrow night (July 4^th night). I do believe that these showers and thunderstorms could cancel firework shows at a localized level while much/most of NJ remains ok for the shows. We’re just going to have to play the radar as such showers and storms will be completely random in location and geographical impact. If it we’re me going to a firework show, I’d still plan to go but would bring a poncho and have a general plan should you hit the shower/storm lottery. So some could see rain/storms while many will be ok. That’s the best I can do from this range.

Friday (July 5) should start dry after overnight showers and storms fizzle out. The day then looks hot and humid with again, isolated showers and thunderstorms around for afternoon/evening hours, not a washout. Most of this activity will be from a leading draped boundary (to become a warm front) attached to a low tracking from the Great Lakes into SE Canada. We’ll feel the warm front Friday in the form of relentless humidity. As any showers and thunderstorms fizzle out Friday night (from loss of solar heating), it will remain humid into Saturday morning.

Saturday (July 6) is then the cold front day. The cold front will also be attached to the Great Lakes-SE Canadian low and will push through NJ from W to E. I expect a thin strip of stormfront riding just ahead of the cold front. So again, not a washout situation…more of a 15-30 minute period of rain and storms coming through Saturday and current data indicates earlier on Saturday than later. I will provide an update on this timing Friday. But for now, just know it’s a short-duration rain/storm period with plenty of the day ahead and behind that thin strip of impact. I will say, however, that the thin stormfront could provide both areas of severe thunderstorm criteria being met as well as areas that see nothing from the stormfront breaking up. Conditions should improve behind the stormfront/cold front, especially into evening/overnight hours into Sunday.

Sunday (July 6) should be transitional. There might be a little lifting/rain leftover from the slowly departing cold front early Sunday morning. But once that is through, dew points should lower from 70s to 60s which will provide some, not total, relief from the humidity. The rest of the day should be dry. Monday is then a transitional day back to heat and humidity with hazy, hot, and humid conditions likely by Tuesday-forward into next week.

Major Hurricane Beryl is a very early-season major hurricane. This hasn’t happened since 1933 (a major hurricane forming this early for the Caribbean). Beryl looks to hit the Yucatan Peninsula directly this Friday, as at least a hurricane, before going on to hit N Mexico (just S of TX border) early next week. There is no direct threat to New Jersey from Beryl. The only secondary effects we might see are elevated humidity and possibly some enhanced synoptic rainfall later next week from Beryl’s fizzling low merging with a frontal boundary.

In English: I know the imagery on your local weather apps/traditional weather sources is scary for July 4^th and the rest of this holiday weekend. You’re probably seeing a lot of rain and storms possible. While rain and storms are possible, they will be of a localized/isolated nature not a washout. Not any day from tomorrow (July 4^th) through Sunday constitutes an all-day washout. Instead, we should have isolated showers and thunderstorms around for Thursday night firework showtimes (some might have to cancel, most end up ok). More isolated stuff is then around for Friday (not a washout) then a cold front Saturday which is looking like mid-to-late morning for just a thin strip of stormfront impact. Possible showers overnight into Sunday morning before conditions improve big time for Sunday morning and beyond. So don’t build an ark/pack it up for the weekend. I would plan on attending your outdoor events but maybe carry a poncho/umbrella and make sure you can get to a place of shelter should one of the isolated storms hit you. If you’re hosting an event/BBQ/etc., have a place for people to step inside for a quick isolated shower/thunderstorm. Saturday’s stormfront would have the best chance to hit everyone but will be a brief, possibly potent, hit. There’s a very good chance that most of your plans between July 4 and Sunday will end up unaffected. Those that do see the lesser chance of rain/storms play out, you’ll be that much better prepared for such. Have a great 4^th and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC