Finally Some Relief! (Aug 20-24)

Discussion: Today’s weather was due to a weak surface low that got hung up off our coast. Upper-level flow is otherwise SW. The low snuck a lower-level NE wind into much of NJ (more noticeable for SNJ/SENJ) and created just enough disturbance to keep it gloomy/misty with light rain at times. Slow moving showers should continue to rotate out of the region by tomorrow morning with the departing low. Careful of overnight rainfall tonight, some of the current rain areas are almost stationary. The disturbance was hardly noticeable at 500mb but it should set up a comfortable day tomorrow (Monday). A deeper trough however is expected to move over our region for Wednesday night into Saturday. The usher for this much-anticipated air mass of relief will be a frontal passage in the late-Tuesday/Wednesday time period. If the frontal timing will allow peak afternoon surface heating on Wednesday then we could become pretty warm and muggy before the frontal passage pushes through. I would expect rain with embedded thunderstorms possible generally between Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday afternoon/evening. I’ll try to narrow that down for you some more as we closer approach. Monday through the first half of Tuesday looks pleasant. Tuesday PM through Wednesday PM seems like the most unsettled period given the frontal passage. Wednesday overnight through Saturday looks gorgeous. Sunday still looks good for outdoor plans but possibly warmer and more humid. I fear the humid/unsettled pattern will try to return next week as the upper-level ridge tries to rebuild over the E US. Hurricane season is currently quiet regarding Mid-Atlantic US interests.

Monday (Aug 20) high temperatures should reach the upper-70s/near-80 for most. Skies should feature a mixed bag of sun and clouds with a comfortable feel. Winds should be light out of the E/NE. Overnight lows should range from 60-70 NNJ to SNJ.

Tuesday (Aug 21) high temperatures should reach the upper-70s/lower-80s for most. Skies should be partly sunny with a chance of showers and thunderstorms, especially during afternoon-evening hours. Winds should be light out of the E/SE, perhaps a bit breezier along the coast. Overnight lows should range from near-70 to mid-70s NNJ to SNJ.

Wednesday (Aug 22) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 80s for most. A cold front is coming through so conditions will vary on either side of the front. Expect sunny humid skies ahead of the front and cloudier wetter, possibly stormy, skies along it. Winds should be breezy out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from mid-50s to mid-60s with noticeably-decreased humidity.

Thursday (Aug 23) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 70s for most. Skies should be mostly sunny with a much drier feel. Winds should be light out of the NW. Overnight lows should range from low-50s to low-60s NNJ to SNJ.

Friday (Aug 24) high temperatures should reach the upper-70s/lower-80s for most. Skies should be mostly sunny with a continued drier feel. Winds should be light out of the E. Overnight lows should range from mid-50s to mid-60s.

An early look at the weekend indicates more “gorgeous for summer” conditions on Saturday. By Sunday we could tick warmer and more humid but should still see plenty of sunshine. Let’s take a look in a few days. Everyone have a great week and please be safe! JC

Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™