This weekend looks much better than the last few. Let’s break it down…
Discussion: A cold front will pass through from NW to SE (maybe more N/NW to S/SE) this weekend as high pressure establishes near Cape Cod. This will take a zone of unsettled conditions through New Jersey between tonight and early tomorrow AM. Isolated showers/storms are possible with this but not widespread. By sunrise on Saturday, everything should be pushed to the S and we should experience a comfortable and dry weekend (highs in the lower-70s…lows in the 50s kind of thing). Given the high placement, anti-cyclonic flow around its SW side will be off the ocean. Therefore, cloudiness could increase by Sunday along with cooler temperatures, especially for the immediate coast. Our next rain shot appears to be Monday.
Friday (May 19) high temperatures should reach well into the 80s. 90+ is possible again for areas away from the ocean. It’s already 80 in some spots at 822AM. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds with a noticeably humid feel. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible. Otherwise winds should be light out of the W. Once the cold front is through temps will drop into the 50s for overnight hours. Most shower/t-storm activity should push away to our S by sunrise on Saturday.
Saturday (May 20) high temperatures should reach the lower-70s for most, especially away from the ocean. NNJ elevations and the immediate coast might hang in the upper-60s. This looks like the best day of the weekend with partly loudy skies and a noticeably drier feel. Winds should be light out of the E. Overnight lows should fall into the 50s for most and possibly even the upper-40s for NNJ elevations.
Sunday (May 21) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 60s statewide. We might see a few locations break 70 away from the ocean. Skies should be partly-to-mostly cloudy. Winds should be light out of the SE. Overnight lows should fall into the 50s statewide as marine influence takes hold…and rain approaches from the W.
An early look at next week indicates a wet start for Monday followed by a possible rain system in the Wednesday-Thursday period. A super early look at Memorial Day weekend indicates no major storm systems. I’m not seeing a dominant area of high pressure either so it’s too early to say whether less-disruptive/nuisance rainfall will fall here and there. We have time for the MDW forecast to evolve. For now…the last hot/humid day is up, a cooler/drier weekend is on deck and a wet next-week is in the hole. Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC
Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™