Far from a Washout

Discussion: Real quick, today’s (Thursday) highs peaked in the 70s but areas SE of I-95/NJTP saw higher levels of humidity than areas NW of such. The recently established onshore flow (High in Gulf of Maine + Low SW of Bermuda) basically saturated the coastal plain regions of SNJ/SENJ while failing to make it up into NNJ and elevations. Tonight’s overnight lows should range from 50-65 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts. Not as cool as recent nights but still comfortable enough to open the windows if you can. Ok, onto the weekend…

This weekend’s conditions will be entirely governed by a trough arriving from the Great Lakes and a coastal disturbance ejecting into the Atlantic Ocean over OBX. These two features should remain isolated from one another (no phase) which actually (meteorologically) creates a zone of subsidence (sinking air) between them. This bodes well for those wanting the rain to hold off until later Saturday afternoon or even evening. The coastal low should miss NJ entirely with rain. The frontal system should eventually push through NJ during Saturday PM hours but maybe with only a quarter-inch of rain or less. Not even sure any thunderstorms will fire along the front but let’s allow for isolated/embedded thunderstorms to be safe. This might make the ocean a little rough for any late-summer swimmers along beaches. Since there will be a reinforced onshore flow, that will drive the ocean into the beaches harder and in-turn result in stronger departing rip currents back into the ocean. That along with some increased swell could make for hazardous swimming conditions. This is in effect now (Thursday) through Friday night. It all clears out for Sunday and resets the beautiful low-humidity conditions where highs max in the 70s under sunny skies and overnight lows dip into the upper-40s/lower-50s again. That should last into Monday before we warm up into the 80s Tuesday through at least Thursday.

Friday (Sept 6) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 70s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Humidity should be felt more in SNJ/SENJ than NNJ/NWNJ but nothing crazy like a hazy, hot, and humid mid-summer day. More like warm and a tad bit muggy, especially SENJ. Winds should be light out of the E/NE away from the ocean, breezier right along the ocean. Overnight lows should fall into the 60s with a few isolated rogue showers around in spots.

Saturday (Sept 7) high temperatures should reach into the 70s for most NJ locations. Skies could start patchy but eventually increase in cloud coverage by late-morning. At some point, likely in the 2-5pm window maybe even later, rain, possibly isolated/embedded thunderstorms, should push through NJ from W to E. This frontal rain could last for a few hours but is only expected to drop around a quarter-inch of rainfall. But from morning through early afternoon, most outdoor interests should be okay outside of overcast skies and possibly a few stray showers.

Sunday (Sept 8) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 70s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mostly sunny with a pleasant feel (low humidity). Right back to the good stuff quite honestly. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the NW. Overnight lows should fall to the 45-55 range from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts—keeping that pumpkin/apple craze going.

An early look at next week (Sept 9-13) indicates another gorgeous day for Monday (similar to Sunday) followed by warmer temps (back into 80s) Tuesday through at least Thursday. Then back to 70s for next weekend. Seeing very little rain after this Saturday’s frontal passage. Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™